A new method to predict meteor showers

Vaubaillon, Jérémie; Colas, F.; Jordá, L.

doi:10.1051/0004-6361:20041544

Cited by 85 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The model of generation and evolution of meteoroid stream in the solar system is taken from Vaubaillon et al (2005). We tested the meteoroid streams of the Leonids, Perseids, Draconids, and τ-Herculids.…”

Section: Data Preparationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of individual meteors with their parent bodies

Rudawska

Vaubaillon

Atreya

2012

A&A

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Context. The main problem in establishing a parent body for a meteoroid stream is the choice of a reliable meteoroid stream identification method. There are several identification methods based on three components: a dynamical similarity function, a threshold value, and meteoroid stream search algorithm. Aims. The French Meteor Network, developed in the CABERNET project (PODET-MET), will soon provide a large amount of meteor observation data aiming to establish a parent body for each observed meteor. We therefore aim to obtain the value of the upper limit to the criteria that we can later use for data provided by the French Meteor Network. Methods. We tested four D-criteria, using artificial data sets for which the parent body is known. We obtained threshold values and applied them to the Armagh Observatory meteor database. A detailed comparison is made between a similarity function based on the orbital elements and the function defined by quasi-invariants. Results. We detected major meteoroid streams in the Armagh Observatory meteor database. A few meteors were also found to be associated with the asteroid 2005 UW6 -an asteroids not considered as a possible parent body for Taurid complex before. However, the problem of finding the appropriate threshold value that would work with all meteoroid streams is still open.

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Section: Data Preparationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of individual meteors with their parent bodies

Rudawska

Vaubaillon

Atreya

2012

A&A

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“…Following the initial report of this identification, described in the previous paragraphs, a meteoroid stream model was developed using the methods described in Vaubaillon (2004) and Vaubaillon et al (2005). The 38-day orbit of 2008 ED69 (JPL 13 in Table 1, Column 6) was integrated backwards in time.…”

Section: A Model Of Kappa Cygnid Stream Formation and Evolutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Minor Planet 2008 Ed69 and the Kappa Cygnid Meteor Shower

Jenniskens¹,

Vaubaillon²

2008

The Astronomical Journal

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Until recently, the kappa Cygnids (IAU#12) were considered an old shower, because the meteors were significantly dispersed in node, radiant, and speed, despite being 28-38• inclined. In 1993, an outburst of kappa Cygnids was observed, which implied that this meteoroid stream was relatively young, instead. At least some dust was still concentrated in dust trailets. Until now, no active comet parent body was known, however, and the wide 22• dispersion of nodes was difficult to explain. This work reports that a minor planet has been discovered that has the right orbital dynamics to account for the kappa Cygnids. Minor planet 2008 ED69 is intrinsically bright, with H = 16.7 ± 0.3, and moves in a highly inclined orbit (i = 36.3• ). With one node near Jupiter's orbit, the perihelion distance, longitude of perihelion, and node quickly change over time, but in a manner that keeps dust concentrated for a long period of time. The stream is more massive than the remaining body, and a form of fragmentation is implicated. A break-up, leaving a stream of meteoroids and at least the one remaining fragment 2008 ED69, can account for the observed dispersion of the kappa Cygnids in Earth's orbit, if the formation epoch is about 2-3 nutation cycles ago, dating to around 4000-1600 BC. Most of that debris now passes close to the orbit of Venus, making the kappa Cygnids a significant shower on Venus.

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“…Following the method developed by Vaubaillon et al (2005b), we model the ejection of meteoroids from comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner. The ejection velocity is computed according to the model developed by Crifo & Rodionov (1997), which is itself based on the dirty snowball model of Whipple (1950).…”

Section: Modelling the Draconidsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The time of maximum derived from 21 test particles located within 4 × 10 −3 AU of the Earth centred about the 1946 streamlet (cf. Vaubaillon et al 2005b, for a description of the technique) is the 8th of October, 18 h UT, 2005. As can be seen on the figure, only a few simulated particles reach the planet; hence the 2 h discrepancy with the observations may be an artifact of small number statistics.…”

Section: Modelling the Draconidsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 2005 Draconid outburst

Campbell-Brown¹,

Vaubaillon

Brown³

et al. 2006

A&A

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Aims. We report the flux profile and mean orbit for meteoroids associated with an unexpected activity outburst from the Draconid meteor shower on 8 October, 2005. The primary aim is to define the characteristics of the outburst and establish the age of the associated meteoroids. Methods. Radar data from the outburst are used to define the flux profile and mass distribution for Draconid meteoroids at small meteoroid masses, while visual data are used to define the ZHR profile at larger masses. The radar recorded both single station and orbital data permitting orbits for many individual Draconid radar echoes as well as determination of a mean shower radiant. Results. The peak activity was centered at 16.1 hrs UT, (λ = 195.• 42 (J2000) solar longitude) with noticeably heightened radar activity lasting for a total of more than three hours. Based on the distribution of amplitudes for underdense Draconid echoes, the mean mass distribution index at masses of 10 −6 kg was found to be 2.0 ± 0.1. The equivalent hourly-binned radar ZHR was in excess of 150, while visual observations in the same intervals produced ZHRs of 40. The apparent radiant of the outburst was α = 256.9 ± 2.2• , δ = +56.6 ± 1.8• . Numerical modelling of radar-sized Draconids show that a significant number of meteoroids from the 1946 perihelion passage of 21P/Giacobini-Zinner encountered the Earth over the interval 195.• 23 ≤ λ ≤ 196.• 0 in 2005, centred about 195.• 50 Conclusions. The shower was rich in faint meteors, and therefore showed higher activity in radar data than in visual data alone. The duration of the outburst was very similar to past returns, while the mean radar stream orbit was somewhat different than previous measurements (the radiant differed by 6• in right ascension and 2• in declination) and also from the expected distribution of orbital elements for modelled 1946 meteoroids encountered in 2005.

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A new method to predict meteor showers

Cited by 85 publications

References 29 publications

Association of individual meteors with their parent bodies

Association of individual meteors with their parent bodies

Minor Planet 2008 Ed69 and the Kappa Cygnid Meteor Shower

The 2005 Draconid outburst

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