Few prospective studies have examined associations of lifestyle factors or variables in the insulin resistance syndrome (syndrome X) with incidence of elevated blood pressure (BP) in black subjects and women. This report estimates the 10-year incidence of high blood pressure (HBP) and high normal blood pressure (HNBP) in the biracial cohort of the Coronary Artery Risk Development in (Young) Adults Study (CARDIA), and examines lifestyle factors and four syndrome X variables, measured at baseline, as predictors. CARDIA examined 5115 black and white men and women aged 18-30 years in 1985-1986, and re-examined them at 2, 5, 7, and 10 years. The 10-year incidence of HBP was 16.4% in black men, 7.8% in white men, 13.1% in black women, and 3.2% in white women, while the 10-year incidence of HBP or HNBP was 29.5%, 16.2%, 19.2%, and 6.3%, respectively, in the four sex-race subgroups. Predictors included body mass index, waist circumference, physi-