A novel modelling approach for evaluating the preindustrial natural carrying capacity of human population in Iceland

Haraldsson, Hördur; Ólafsdóttir, Rannveig

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.08.013

Cited by 43 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Vasey (2001) and Haraldsson & Ólafsdóttir (2006) use temperature as a proxy for potential biological production available for livestock to estimate land carrying capacity. Inspired by their work, K t was substituted with the various climate composites in Eq.…”

Section: Applying the Logistic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium

Lee

Zhang²,

Fok³

2009

Clim. Res.

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ABSTRACT:The relationship between climate and population has long been discussed, but rarely has it been quantitatively measured. Hence, the relationship remains ambiguous. In the present study, we employ fine-grained temperature, aridity threshold, and population data, together with logistic models and spatial statistics, to quantitatively explore how far climate change affected population growth dynamics in China from 1000 to 1979. Statistical results confirm that cold climate was associated with below average population growth, mediated by regional geographic contexts. In addition, cold climate triggered a southward shift of populations. In short, the climate-population relationship was evident in historical China, and temperature was more influential than the aridity threshold in explaining the fluctuation of population size and shifts in population distribution. The strong influence of temperature change on northward and southward population shifts and the weak influence of the change in the aridity threshold on population growth dynamics are further discussed. The observed temperature-population relationship may give some indication of future demographic effects from climate warming.

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Section: Applying the Logistic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium

Lee

Zhang²,

Fok³

2009

Clim. Res.

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“…Fearnside, developed his own CCA model in Human carrying capacity of the Brazilian rainforest (1986) which examines interconnected relationships in resource usage over extended timeframes. While Fearnside seems to have developed the most comprehensive systems model to date, other proponents of this approach include Mochelle (2006a), Van Den Bergh (1993) and Haraldsson and Olafsdottir (2006). Fearnside uses computer simulations to estimate human carrying capacities for a particular Brazilian rural settlement.…”

Section: System-based Cca Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Existing systems-simulation software needs to be assessed to gauge possible applicability to CCA. For example, Haraldsson and Olafsdottir (2006) used Powersim2.5 for their analysis of Iceland's pre-industrial carrying capacity. Alternatively, new software may need to be developed.…”

Section: Usabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The carrying capacity imperative: Assessing regional carrying capacity methodologies for sustainable land-use planning

Lane

2010

Land Use Policy

114

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a b s t r a c tWhile some existing carrying capacity methodologies offer significant insights into the assessment of population carrying capacities, a comprehensive model is yet to be developed. This research identifies, examines and compares a range of methodological approaches to carrying capacity assessment and considers their relevance to future spatial planning. A range of key criteria are employed to compare various existing carrying capacity assessment models. These criteria include integrated systems analysis, dynamic responses, levels of risk, systemic constraints, applicability to future planning and the consideration of regional boundary delineation. It is suggested that by combining successful components from various authors, and collecting a range of interconnected data, a practical and workable system-based model may be achievable in the future.

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“…25% in relation to climatic cooling'' [27]. Now in the first decade of the 21st century the temperature in Iceland is rising and is predicted to rise about 0.3 8C per decade for the first half of the 21st century [28].…”

Section: Patterns Driven By Changes In Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

A theory of the evolution of settlement structures based on identification and use of patterns: Iceland as a case study

Valsson

Garðarsson

2013

Futures

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A novel modelling approach for evaluating the preindustrial natural carrying capacity of human population in Iceland

Cited by 43 publications

References 7 publications

Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium

Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium

The carrying capacity imperative: Assessing regional carrying capacity methodologies for sustainable land-use planning

A theory of the evolution of settlement structures based on identification and use of patterns: Iceland as a case study

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