2021
DOI: 10.5089/9781513594842.001
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A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis

Abstract: This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and Brazil through the model lens. Moreover, we show how our model would have predicted that a super infectious variant, such as the delta, would spread and argue that current vaccination levels in many countries are not eno… Show more

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Cited by 3 publications
(1 citation statement)
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“…Since the beginning of the pandemic, four variants have been classified as VOC by the World Health Organization [16] When the prevalence of one (or more) of these variants become relevant, the epidemiological models used to track the pandemic evolution should take them into account. Several modeling contributions to describe the effect of variants have been proposed in the literature in the past few months [12,17,18,19].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Since the beginning of the pandemic, four variants have been classified as VOC by the World Health Organization [16] When the prevalence of one (or more) of these variants become relevant, the epidemiological models used to track the pandemic evolution should take them into account. Several modeling contributions to describe the effect of variants have been proposed in the literature in the past few months [12,17,18,19].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%