Everyday inductive inferences are often guided by rich background knowledge. Formal models of induction should aim to incorporate this knowledge, and should explain how different kinds of knowledge lead to the distinctive patterns of reasoning found in different inductive contexts. We present a Bayesian framework that attempts to meet both goals and describe four applications of the framework: a taxonomic model, a spatial model, a threshold model, and a causal model. Each model makes probabilistic inferences about the extensions of novel properties, but the priors for the four models are defined over different kinds of structures that capture different relationships between the categories in a domain. Our framework therefore shows how statistical inference can operate over structured background knowledge, and we argue that this interaction between structure and statistics is critical for explaining the power and flexibility of human reasoning.
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Structured statistical models of inductive reasoningHumans are adept at making inferences that take them beyond the limits of their direct experience. Even young children can learn the meaning of a novel word from a single labeled example (Heibeck & Markman, 1987), predict the trajectory of a moving object when it passes behind an occluder (Spelke, 1990), and choose a gait that allows them to walk over terrain they have never before encountered. Inferences like these may differ in many respects, but common to them all is the need to "go beyond the information given" (Bruner, 1973).Two different ways of going beyond the available information can be distinguished.Deductive inferences draw out conclusions that may have been previously unstated but were implicit in the data provided. Inductive inferences go beyond the available data in a more fundamental way, and arrive at conclusions that are likely but not certain given the available evidence. Both kinds of inferences are of psychological interest, but inductive inferences appear to play a more central role in everyday cognition. We have already seen examples related to language, vision, and motor control, and many other inductive problems have been described in the literature (Holland, Holyoak, Nisbett, & Thagard, 1986;Anderson, 1990). This paper describes a formal approach to inductive inference that should apply to many different problems, but we will focus on the problem of property induction (Sloman & Lagnado, 2005). In particular, we consider cases where one or more more categories in a domain are observed to have a novel property, and the inductive task is to predict how the property is distributed over the remaining categories in the domain. For instance, given that bears have sesamoid bones, which species is more likely to share this property: moose or salmon (Rips, 1975; Osherson, Smith, Wilkie, Lopez, & Shafir, 1990)? Moose may seem like the better choice since they are more similar biologically to bears, but different properties can lead to different patterns of inference. For example, given that a c...