A Review of Recent Forest and Wildland Fire Management Decision Support Systems Research

Martell, David L.

doi:10.1007/s40725-015-0011-y

Cited by 100 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Wildfire management can be a complex decision-making process involving uncertain and dynamic conditions, and requiring rapid assimilation of multiple types of information from various sources [1,2]. Operations research (OR) models can be used to help integrate fire data, suggest management strategies, and conduct tradeoff analysis to assist fire decision processes [3][4][5][6]. OR models developed for wildfire management can take many forms, ranging from pre-fire applications determining optimal investment portfolios in prevention/suppression activities along with optimal stationing and deployment rules for suppression resources [7][8][9][10][11][12], to post-fire applications determining optimal mitigation strategies for reducing debris flow risk [13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Designing Operationally Relevant Daily Large Fire Containment Strategies Using Risk Assessment Results

Wei

Thompson

Scott³

et al. 2019

Forests

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In this study, we aim to advance the optimization of daily large fire containment strategies for ground-based suppression resources by leveraging fire risk assessment results commonly used by fire managers in the western USA. We begin from an existing decision framework that spatially overlays fire risk assessment results with pre-identified potential wildland fire operational delineations (PODs), and then clusters PODs into a response POD (rPOD) using a mixed integer program (MIP) model to minimize expected loss. We improve and expand upon this decision framework through enhanced fire modeling integration and refined analysis of probabilistic and time-sensitive information. Specifically, we expand the set of data inputs to include raster layers of simulated burn probability, flame length probability, fire arrival time, and expected net value change, all calculated using a common set of stochastic weather forecasts and landscape data. Furthermore, we develop a secondary optimization model that, for a given optimal rPOD, dictates the timing of fire line construction activities to ensure completion of containment line prior to fire arrival along specific rPOD edges. The set of management decisions considered includes assignment of PODs to be included in the rPOD, assignment of suppression resources to protect susceptible structures within the rPOD, and assignment of suppression resources to construct fire lines, on specific days, along the perimeter of the rPOD. We explore how fire manager risk preferences regarding firefighter safety affect optimal rPOD characteristics, and use a simple decision tree to display multiple solutions and support rapid assessment of alternatives. We base our test cases on the FSPro simulation of the 2017 Sliderock Fire that burned on the Lolo National Forest in Montana, USA. The overarching goal of this research is to generate operationally relevant decision support that can best balance the benefits and losses from wildfire and the cost from responding to wildfire.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Designing Operationally Relevant Daily Large Fire Containment Strategies Using Risk Assessment Results

Wei

Thompson

Scott³

et al. 2019

Forests

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“…Climate change is expected to aggravate these risks (Kates et al, 2012) but they can be reduced through fuel management (Agee and Skinner, 2005;Martell, 2015;Ascoli et al, 2012). This is the process of altering the structure and amount of fuel accumulation in a landscape.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuel treatment planning: Fragmenting high fuel load areas while maintaining availability and connectivity of faunal habitat

Rachmawati

Özlen

Hearne

et al. 2018

Applied Mathematical Modelling

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Reducing the fuel load in fire-prone landscapes is aimed at mitigating the risk of catastrophic wildfires but there are ecological consequences. Maintaining habitat for fauna of both sufficient extent and connectivity while fragmenting areas of high fuel loads presents land managers with seemingly contrasting objectives. Faced with this dichotomy, we propose a Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) model that can optimally schedule fuel treatments to reduce fuel hazards by fragmenting high fuel load regions while considering critical ecological requirements over time and space. The model takes into account both the frequency of fire that vegetation can tolerate and the frequency of fire necessary for fire-dependent species. Our approach also ensures that suitable alternate habitat is available and accessible to fauna affected by a treated area. More importantly, to conserve fauna the model sets a minimum acceptable target for the connectivity of habitat at any time . These factors are all included in the formulation of a model that yields a multi-period spatially-explicit schedule for treatment planning. Our approach is then demonstrated in a series of computational experiments with hypothetical landscapes, a single vegetation type and a group of faunal species with the same habitat requirements. Our experiments show that it is possible to reduce the risk of wildfires while ensuring sufficient connectivity of habitat over both space and time. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the habitat connectivity constraint is more effective than neighbourhood habitat constraints. This is critical for the conservation of fauna and of special concern for vulnerable or endangered species.

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“…As concerns similarly escalate regarding how to best respond to wildland fires in resource-constrained policy and decision environments, there is increasing recognition that any proposed solutions to wildland fire problems must be inspired by decision analytic and economic principles (Martell 2015;Rodríguez y Silva and González-Cabán 2016). That is, given the complexity and uncertainty of fire response, decision-support systems are likely necessary to help fire managers determine and demonstrate effective and efficient solutions (Mavsar et al 2013;Pacheco et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We further draw from several review papers focused on related questions of fire impacts, resource valuation, optimisation, fire management operations, fire modelling, uncertainty and risk, and decision support (Bowman and Johnston 2014;Hand et al 2014;Milne et al 2014;Minas et al 2012;Duff and Tolhurst 2015;Martell 2015;Omi 2015;Pacheco et al 2015). We attempt to link insights from these strands of research to identify productive paths forward to improve the efficiency of large fire management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of challenges to determining and demonstrating efficiency of large fire management

Thompson

Silva

Calkin

et al. 2017

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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Abstract. Characterising the impacts of wildland fire and fire suppression is critical information for fire management decision-making. Here, we focus on decisions related to the rare larger and longer-duration fire events, where the scope and scale of decision-making can be far broader than initial response efforts, and where determining and demonstrating efficiency of strategies and actions can be particularly troublesome. We organise our review around key decision factors such as context, complexity, alternatives, consequences and uncertainty, and for illustration contrast fire management in Andalusia, Spain, and Montana, USA. Two of the largest knowledge gaps relate to quantifying fire impacts to ecosystem services, and modelling relationships between fire management activities and avoided damages. The relative magnitude of these and other concerns varies with the complexity of the socioecological context in which fire management decisions are made. To conclude our review, we examine topics for future research, including expanded use of the economics toolkit to better characterise the productivity and effectiveness of suppression actions, integration of ecosystem modelling with economic principles, and stronger adoption of risk and decision analysis within fire management decision-making.

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A Review of Recent Forest and Wildland Fire Management Decision Support Systems Research

Cited by 100 publications

References 44 publications

Designing Operationally Relevant Daily Large Fire Containment Strategies Using Risk Assessment Results

Designing Operationally Relevant Daily Large Fire Containment Strategies Using Risk Assessment Results

Fuel treatment planning: Fragmenting high fuel load areas while maintaining availability and connectivity of faunal habitat

A review of challenges to determining and demonstrating efficiency of large fire management

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