A Selective Hypothesis Testing Perspective on Price‐Quality Inference and Inference‐Based Choice

Cronley, Maria L.; Posavac, Steven S.; Meyer, Tracy; Kardes, Frank R.; Kellaris, James J.

doi:10.1207/s15327663jcp1502_8

Cited by 93 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Thus, it is possible that some individuals in the standard conditions above tested both the ideal behavior hypothesis and a more realistic one. Consistent with this idea of heterogeneity in testing, there is evidence that consumers who are low in need for cognitive closure are more likely to test multiple hypotheses (Cronley et al 2005; Kardes et al 2004). Accordingly, I reasoned the decisiveness factor of Webster and…”

Section: Study 6: Moderation By Decisivenessmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…That is, while there is an emerging consensus that selective hypothesis testing can be exacerbated by adding time pressure or increasing cognitive load (Cronley et al 2005;Smith et al 2007), I know of no empirical evidence indicating that selective hypothesis testing can be turned off. Since one of my primary objectives is to explore whether consumers can be led to make more realistic predictions of future behavior, I required a different approach.…”

Section: A Selective Hypothesis Testing Account Of Unrealistic Optimismmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Unrealistically Optimistic Consumers: A Selective Hypothesis Testing Account for Optimism in Predictions of Future Behavior

Tanner

2009

J Consum Res

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Individuals tend to make unrealistically optimistic self assessments about themselves and their future behavior. While little studied in marketing, unrealistic optimism by consumers may have negative consequences for both marketers and consumers. This dissertation proposes and explores a selective hypothesis testing view of unrealistic optimism. Specifically, I propose that consumers adopt the tentative hypothesis that they will behave in an ideal fashion when predicting their future behavior. They then selectively test this hypothesis by accessing information consistent with it, with the ultimate consequence being unrealistically optimistic predictions of future behavior.To validate this theory I use the following experimental paradigm. I have individuals first provide an idealized estimate for the behavior of interest (e.g., In an ideal world, how often would you exercise next week?) and then provide a second estimate (e.g., How often will you exercise next week?). The idea here is that by making the idealized nature of the ideal behavior salient consumers will be less likely to test a hypothesis of ideal behavior when subsequently providing an estimate. In a series of ten studies, I find that prior consideration of idealistic performance does indeed temper optimism in subsequent self-assessments (henceforth post-ideal estimates). Specifically, post-ideal estimates are free of relative optimism versus expectations of others v behaviors, are more reflective of actual past behavior, and better predict actual future behavior. Furthermore, this attenuation of optimism is mediated by increased consideration of realistic thoughts and is moderated by both expertise and decisiveness.All of these results are consistent with selective hypothesis testing being a key driver of unrealistic optimism. Additionally I demonstrate that the debiasing effect of my method extends from behaviors to above average (and in some cases below average) views of traits and abilities. As such my work raises the possibility that selective hypothesis testing underlies a wide variety of self assessment biases.Having found strong support for my selective hypothesis testing view of unrealistic optimism, I also explore the potential consequences that unrealistic optimism may have for consumer decisions. In particular, I demonstrate that unrealistically optimistic predictions of future behavior appear to be associated with greater willingness to pay for socially desirable products (e.g., treadmills) and that attenuation of such optimism can reduce willingness to pay. Some researchers have argued that unrealistic optimism with respect to future behavior causes people to make vice choices in the present because they expect to make virtuous choices in the future (Kahn and Dhar 2007). If so, then the current research suggests one way to help consumers from falling into the trap of justifying vice behaviors with optimistically held views about future actions.vi

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Section: Study 6: Moderation By Decisivenessmentioning

confidence: 85%

Section: A Selective Hypothesis Testing Account Of Unrealistic Optimismmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unrealistically Optimistic Consumers: A Selective Hypothesis Testing Account for Optimism in Predictions of Future Behavior

Tanner

2009

J Consum Res

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“…These adjustments, however, tend to be slight and may never overcome the initial impression. One possible reason for this is so-called "selective hypothesis testing" (Cronley et al, 2005). Once people have formed an initial impression or opinion, they tend to gather additional information selectively to confirm their opinion, ignoring other information that might conflict with that opinion.…”

Section: Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Signage as Marketing Communication

Kellaris¹,

Machleit²

2016

IJSW

Self Cite

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Further advancement of the growing knowledge base in the emerging, cross-disciplinary field of signage should benefit from investigation into how and why communication effects of signs occur, as such insights could potentially inform evidence-based decision-making. To facilitate such research, the authors propose a conceptual model of signage as a marketing communication tool. Model components include objective and subjective traits of signs, characteristics and states of viewers, contextual variables, conscious and intuitive process mechanisms, and communication outcomes, including affective, cognitive, and behavioral responses to signs. In addition to providing directions for further research, the model provides a framework for mapping published findings onto a "big picture" and for identifying missing pieces of the puzzle.

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“…Selective hypothesis testing is common (Cronley, Posavac, Meyer, Kardes, & Kellaris, 2005;Tanner & Carlson, 2009). Under conditions of uncertainty or information overload, individuals tend to ignore systematic information search and instead form a single, select hypothesis and test its merits to draw conclusions (Sanbonmatsu, Posavac, Kardes, & Mantel, 1998).…”

Section: Literature Review and Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%