A Simple Method for Predicting Intensity Change Using the Peak Time Lag Between Lightning and Wind in Tropical Cyclones

Abstract

The accurate forecasting of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) includes the most likely future path and intensity change. Although minimal improvement in intensity forecasts has been observed (Rappaport et al., 2009) compared with track forecasting, there has been a notable decrease in the intensity forecast error and an increase in intensity forecast skill (Cangialosi et al., 2020, Figure 3) over the past 2 decades. One of the difficulties of accurate forecasting is the lack of observations with adequate spatial and temporal resolution (Demaria et al., 2012), especially near the storm center, because of the shortage of aircraft-based in situ and radar observation. Fortunately, lightning can add substantial value to the short-term TC intensity forecasts, as shown in DeMaria et al. (2012) and Black and Hallett (1986). The Worldwide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) has provided continuous observations of lightning activity in TCs Worldwide (Rodger et al., 2005). The excellent performance of the WWLLN has been verified against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Lightning Imaging Sensor dataset (Virts et al., 2013). Price et al. (2009) believed that lightning data from these detection networks may contribute to better forecasts of TC intensification in the future. Positive relationships between the inner-core (or eyewall) lightning outbreaks and TC intensification (e.g.,

Lightning Distribution in Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall in China

“…Previous studies have found that the radial distribution of TC lightning shows an obvious pattern with two maxima in the inner core and outer rainbands and one minimum in the inner rainbands (Cecil et al, 2002;DeMaria et al, 2012;Stevenson et al, 2016). A positive correlation has been shown between lightning frequency and the maximum sustained wind speed of TCs (Price et al, 2009;Whittaker et al, 2015;Kong et al, 2021). The increase in lightning frequency may indicate the enhancement of TC intensity (Abarca et al, 2011;Pan et al, 2014;Wang et al, 2016).…”

Can lightning indicate genesis frequency of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea?

“…The onset of increasing deep convection associated with low‐level circulation is an important process of TC genesis (Zehr, 1992). Several previous studies have suggested that the lightning activity may be an indicative precursor of the TC genesis and intensity (Price et al ., 2007, 2015; Jenkins and Pratt, 2008; Pan et al ., 2010; Kong et al ., 2021). Price et al .…”