A spatial assessment of Nipah virus transmission in Thailand pig farms using multi-criteria decision analysis

Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; Paul, Mathilde; Wiratsudakul, Anuwat; Wongphruksasoong, Vilaiporn; Kalpravidh, Wantanee; Wongsathapornchai, Kachen; Damrongwatanapokin, Sudarat; Schar, Daniel; Gilbert, Marius

doi:10.1186/s12917-019-1815-y

Cited by 12 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 45 publications

(55 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In Cambodia, P. lylei bats were found to often forage in residential areas and visit palm trees used in the region as a source of date palm sap; thus, opportunities abound for bats to interact with humans and livestock in this country ( 41 ). Bat colony migration toward urban sites is further enhanced by the presence of hunters in rural areas ( 42 ) and deforestation (causing consequent damage to roosting trees and food sources) ( 43 ). Contamination of palm sap, which is consumed raw by persons in the region, with bat urine, saliva, or feces was found to be a major route of NiV transmission to humans during annual outbreaks in Bangladesh ( 10 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High Pathogenicity of Nipah Virus fromPteropus lyleiFruit Bats, Cambodia

Gaudino¹,

Aurine²,

Dumont³

et al. 2020

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We conducted an in-depth characterization of the Nipah virus (NiV) isolate previously obtained from a Pteropus lylei bat in Cambodia in 2003 (CSUR381). We performed full-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analyses and confirmed CSUR381 is part of the NiV-Malaysia genotype. In vitro studies revealed similar cell permissiveness and replication of CSUR381 (compared with 2 other NiV isolates) in both bat and human cell lines. Sequence alignments indicated conservation of the ephrin-B2 and ephrin-B3 receptor binding sites, the glycosylation site on the G attachment protein, as well as the editing site in phosphoprotein, suggesting production of nonstructural proteins V and W, known to counteract the host innate immunity. In the hamster animal model, CSUR381 induced lethal infections. Altogether, these data suggest that the Cambodia bat-derived NiV isolate has high pathogenic potential and, thus, provide insight for further studies and better risk assessment for future NiV outbreaks in Southeast Asia.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High Pathogenicity of Nipah Virus fromPteropus lyleiFruit Bats, Cambodia

Gaudino¹,

Aurine²,

Dumont³

et al. 2020

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…To expand the model to cover the whole country, a field study to identify the current locations of bat colonies nationwide should be undertaken, together with increased data collection on other factors needed in the spatial risk model construction. However, the present study initially carried out a risk analysis of one of the hotspots identified in a previous study [35] using a more sophisticated analytical technique. Our methods could be applied more widely once more data are available.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We focused on 2093 subdistricts located in the central plain of Thailand, where bat colonies and pig farms are highly concentrated. The spatial risk of NiV emergence was assessed using the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, and the results were published previously [35]. In this study, we sought to expand on those results.…”

Section: Index Subdistricts Identification For the Spread Of Nivmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The experts identified i) spatial risk factors of NiV transmission including bat preferred areas, distance to the nearest bat colony, pig population density, distance to the nearest forest, distance to the nearest orchard, distance to the nearest water body, and human population density, ii) the experts identified the association between the values of each factor and the suitability of NiV distribution by using fuzzy membership functions, and iii) technique. The details of all steps are explained in [35]. Subsequently, the geometric information system (GIS) method with a weighted linear combination (WLC) was used to combine all spatial risk layers to generate a final estimated map.…”

Section: Index Subdistricts Identification For the Spread Of Nivmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A ‘what-if’ scenario: Nipah virus attacks pig trade chains in Thailand

et al. 2020

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: Nipah virus (NiV) is a fatal zoonotic agent that was first identified amongst pig farmers in Malaysia in 1998, in an outbreak that resulted in 105 fatal human cases. That epidemic arose from a chain of infection, initiating from bats to pigs, and which then spilled over from pigs to humans. In Thailand, bat-pig-human communities can be observed across the country, particularly in the central plain. The present study therefore aimed to identify highrisk areas for potential NiV outbreaks and to model how the virus is likely to spread. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and weighted linear combination (WLC) were employed to produce the NiV risk map. The map was then overlaid with the nationwide pig movement network to identify the index subdistricts in which NiV may emerge. Subsequently, susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) modeling was used to simulate NiV spread within each subdistrict, and network modeling was used to illustrate how the virus disperses across subdistricts. Results: Based on the MCDA and pig movement data, 14 index subdistricts with a high-risk of NiV emergence were identified. We found in our infectious network modeling that the infected subdistricts clustered in, or close to the central plain, within a range of 171 km from the source subdistricts. However, the virus may travel as far as 528.5 km (R 0 = 5). Conclusions: In conclusion, the risk of NiV dissemination through pig movement networks in Thailand is low but not negligible. The risk areas identified in our study can help the veterinary authority to allocate financial and human resources to where preventive strategies, such as pig farm regionalization, are required and to contain outbreaks in a timely fashion once they occur.

show abstract

“…By combining spatial geographic data and its weighted, it is converted into a decision map [18]. It has a wide range of applications, mainly in environmental studies, land suitability assessment and epidemiological risk area assessment [19][20][21]. In health geography, this approach can re ect the complexity of spatial risk factors that affect the disease occurrence and consider multiple criteria for better understanding of disease characteristics [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of foot-and-mouth disease risk areas in mainland China based spatial multi-criteria decision analysis

Wang

Jian-hua

Ouyang

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. As a transboundary animal disease, the prevention and control of FMD are important. This study was based on spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess FMD risk areas in mainland China. Ten risk factors were identified for constructing risk maps by scoring, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to calculate the criteria weights of all factors. Different risk factors had different units and attributes, and fuzzy membership was used to standardize the risk factors. The weighted linear combination (WLC) and one-at-a-time (OAT) were used to obtain risk and uncertainty maps as well as to perform sensitivity analysis. Results Four major risk areas were identified in mainland China, including western (Xinjiang and Tibet), southern (Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Guangdong), northern (Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia), and eastern (Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong). We found spring as the main season for FMD outbreaks. Risk areas were associated with the distance to previous outbreak points, grazing areas and cattle density. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated that the risk map had good predictive power (AUC = 0.8532). Conclusions These results can be used to delineate FMD risk areas in mainland China, and provinces can adopt the targeted preventive measures and control strategies.

show abstract

A spatial assessment of Nipah virus transmission in Thailand pig farms using multi-criteria decision analysis

Cited by 12 publications

References 45 publications

High Pathogenicity of Nipah Virus fromPteropus lyleiFruit Bats, Cambodia

High Pathogenicity of Nipah Virus fromPteropus lyleiFruit Bats, Cambodia

A ‘what-if’ scenario: Nipah virus attacks pig trade chains in Thailand

Assessment of foot-and-mouth disease risk areas in mainland China based spatial multi-criteria decision analysis

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About