A systematic approach to the synthesis of forecasting mathematical models for interrelated non-stationary time series

Forming a method for the integral estimation of interface quality in automated systems based on the quantitative and qualitative indicators

“…Application of the three-level comparator makes it possible to use and represent negative estimates in the field of negative numbers which in the respondents' opinion is promising because it takes into account the user psychology and simplifies estimation. This conclusion with the use of quadratic Euclidean norm has reduced the problem of estimating the generalized index to the problem of determining the vector modulus by its components and rules of vector algebra which could not be realized in [24,27]. Spatial representation of empirical trends of attributes with rotating coordinate planes is a means of visualization.…”

“…The complexity of the process of estimating the reliability of information consists in that information should be estimated as a whole in such a way that the probability of describing insignificant parameters does not appear to be a cover for the actual state of the object [24,26]. Generalization of the modeling algorithms as well as making a forecast for nonlinear models of trends for time series and examples of numerical data are discussed in [27]. To estimate the reliability of the constructed information model of interface quality, the method of multifactor correlation-regression analysis will be used.…”

Synthesis of a trend’s integral estimate based on a totality of indicators for a time series data

“…This procedure of the construction of mathematical models and the algorithm for the estimation of unknown parameters based on time series analysis has the advantages due to the fact that it uses the Bayesian approach [24], but its distribution on nonlinear models is complicated. The attempts to generalize the processes of construction of the models and prediction for nonlinear models of time series and numerical examples are found in article [26]. As shown in [26], the proposed generalized scheme of prediction of non-stationary interconnected time samples of the series is effective to describe almost currently known combined, hybrid or decomposition model.…”

“…The attempts to generalize the processes of construction of the models and prediction for nonlinear models of time series and numerical examples are found in article [26]. As shown in [26], the proposed generalized scheme of prediction of non-stationary interconnected time samples of the series is effective to describe almost currently known combined, hybrid or decomposition model. The success of its implementation is caused by the introduction of the identification based on the methods «Caterpillar»-SSA, a quick orthogonal search, the method of group consideration of arguments.…”

“…To implement the approach to constructing adequate models [25,26,28] of techno-economic systems, we will normalize the indicators. The norm will be selected based on positiveness of estimates in conventional monetary units and positiveness of estimates of government's actions.…”