A weak El Niño/Southern Oscillation with delayed seasonal growth around 4,300 years ago

McGregor, Helen; Fischer, Matt J.; Gagan, Michael K.; Fink, David; Phipps, Steven J.; Wong, Henri; Woodroffe, Colin D.

doi:10.1038/ngeo1936

Cited by 109 publications

(111 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…A recent study further suggests that a vegetated and less dusty North Africa during the MH could also suppress ENSO significantly through its impact on the atmosphere and in turn atmospheric teleconnection into the tropical Pacific [95]. Moreover, the shift of ENSO centers of action [33,61] and the change in timing of ENSO events [88,93] further complicate this problem for both more effective data interpretations and more reliable model simulations. To resolve the model-data inconsistency regarding the evolution of the ENSO variability during the Holocene, much more high-resolution paleoclimate data from ENSO centers of action, model simulations with more complete physical processes and better model-data comparison/synthesis are still needed.…”

Section: Model Simulations and Model-data Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the sediment records, they are often not sensitive to La Niña (or drought in the sampling regions) conditions [22,24,25,27] and lack the resolution to resolve ENSO explicitly. In addition, the representation of physical processes that is the basis of paleo-ENSO proxy data interpretation could be altered in the past due to changes in ENSO centers of action [33,42] or ENSO seasonal phase locking [88]. For example, the spatial patterns of ENSO-induced atmospheric teleconnection for precipitation-sensitive proxy records, or the salinity-isotope relation for temperature-sensitive proxy records may have been different from what they are today.…”

Section: Proxy Recordsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Review of Paleo El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Liu

Zhu

et al. 2018

Atmosphere

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Abstract:The Earth has seen El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-the leading mode of interannual climate variability-for at least millennia and likely over millions of years. This paper reviews previous studies from perspectives of both paleoclimate proxy data (from traditional sediment records to the latest high-resolution oxygen isotope records) and model simulations (including earlier intermediate models to the latest isotope-enabled coupled models). It summarizes current understanding of ENSO's past evolution during both interglacial and glacial periods and its response to external climatic forcings such as volcanic, orbital, ice-sheet and greenhouse gas forcings. Due to the intrinsic irregularity of ENSO and its complicated relationship with other climate phenomena, reconstructions and model simulations of ENSO variability are subject to inherent difficulties in interpretations and biases. Resolving these challenges through new data syntheses, new statistical methods, more complex climate model simulations as well as direct model-data comparisons can potentially better constrain uncertainty regarding ENSO's response to future global warming.

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Section: Model Simulations and Model-data Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Proxy Recordsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Paleo El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Liu

Zhu

et al. 2018

Atmosphere

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“…Paleoclimate records show that the magnitude of ENSO variance has changed throughout the Holocene (e.g., Cobb et al 2013;McGregor et al 2013), and multicentury coral records indicate that decadal-scale tropical Pacific variability was stronger before the midtwentieth century (Damassa et al 2006;Ault et al 2009). Similarly, long climate model simulations show intervals of stronger and weaker interannual ENSO variability (e.g., Wittenberg 2009).…”

Section: B Possible Causes Of Scaling Behavior Over High-latitude Ocmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature and Precipitation Variance in CMIP5 Simulations and Paleoclimate Records of the Last Millennium

et al. 2017

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Accurate assessments of future climate impacts require realistic simulation of interannual-century-scale temperature and precipitation variability. Here, well-constrained paleoclimate data and the latest generation of Earth system model data are used to evaluate the magnitude and spatial consistency of climate variance distributions across interannual to centennial frequencies. It is found that temperature variance generally increases with time scale in patterns that are spatially consistent among models, especially over the mid-and high-latitude oceans. However, precipitation is similar to white noise across much of the globe. When Earth system model variance is compared to variance generated by simple autocorrelation, it is found that tropical temperature variability in Earth system models is difficult to distinguish from variability generated by simple autocorrelation. By contrast, both forced and unforced Earth system models produce variability distinct from a simple autoregressive process over most high-latitude oceans. This new analysis of tropical paleoclimate records suggests that low-frequency variance dominates the temperature spectrum across the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, but in many Earth system models, interannual variance dominates the simulated central and eastern tropical Pacific temperature spectrum, regardless of forcing. Tropical Pacific model spectra are compared to spectra from the instrumental record, but the short instrumental record likely cannot provide accurate multidecadal-centennial-scale variance estimates. In the coming decades, both forced and natural patterns of decade-century-scale variability will determine climaterelated risks. Underestimating low-frequency temperature and precipitation variability may significantly alter our understanding of the projections of these climate impacts.

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“…Whilst increased ENSO variability (~4-5 ka) in the Indo-Pacific remains controversial (Clement et al, 2000, Corrège et al, 2000, Cobb et al, 2013, McGregor et al, 2013, McGregor and Gagan, 2004, warmer and wetter conditions during the mid-Holocene have been identified both from fossil corals in the GBR (Gagan et al, 1998, Roche et al, 2014 and from terrestrial records from northeast Australia (Kershaw, 1976, Kershaw, 1983, Nott and Price, 1994, Shulmeister and Lees, 1995, Reeves et al, 2013. Wetter climatic conditions during the mid-Holocene would have resulted in stronger flood events and a greater annual range of salinities, particularly for the central GBR (Roche et al, 2014) located adjacent to the Burdekin River (the largest river in northeast Queensland).…”

Section: Accepted M Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Successive phases of Holocene reef flat development: Evidence from the mid- to outer Great Barrier Reef

Dechnik

Webster

Webb

et al. 2017

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology

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A re-examination of 46 recently published U/Th reef flat ages from Heron and One Tree reefs in the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR) identified several distinct Holocene reef growth phases with a clear 2.3-kyr hiatus in lateral reef accretion from 3.9 ka to 1.5 ka. An analysis of all available published radiocarbon reef flat ages (165) from 27 other mid-outer platform reefs revealed a similar hiatus between 3.6 ka and 1.6 ka for the northern, south-central and southern GBR. However, no hiatus in reef flat growth was observed in reefs from the central GBR with ages ranging from 7.6 ka to 0.9 ka. Increased upwelling, turbidity and cyclone activity in response to increased sea-surface temperature (SST's), precipitation and El-Nino Southern Oscillation variability have been ruled out as possible mechanisms of reef turn-off for the midouter platform reefs. Rather, a fall (~0.5 m) in relative sea level at 4-3.5 ka is the most likely explanation for why reefs in the northern and southern regions turned off during this time.Greater hydro-isostatic adjustment of the central GBR and long term subsidence of the HalifaxBasin may have provided greater vertical accommodation for the mid-outer reefs of the central GBR, thus allowing these reefs to continue to accrete vertically despite a fall in sea level ~4-3.5 ka. Further evidence for greater subsidence in this region includes the lack of senile reefs and dominance of incipient and juvenile reefs in the central GBR. This suggests that these reefs approached sea level considerably later than the northern and southern reefs, consistent with their deeper antecedent substrates. Thus, these results not only provide important information about possible reef flat demise in response to natural environmental factors, but also provide insights into regional subsidence that affected relative sea level along the east Australian margin during the Holocene.

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A weak El Niño/Southern Oscillation with delayed seasonal growth around 4,300 years ago

Cited by 109 publications

References 28 publications

A Review of Paleo El Niño-Southern Oscillation

A Review of Paleo El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Temperature and Precipitation Variance in CMIP5 Simulations and Paleoclimate Records of the Last Millennium

Successive phases of Holocene reef flat development: Evidence from the mid- to outer Great Barrier Reef

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