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Ommen, T. D. (2013). Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years. Journal of Climate, 26 (18), 6915-6936. Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years AbstractThe past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data-model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral δ18O record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data-model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches. ABSTRACTThe past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data-model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestim...

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Earth's interannual climate variability is dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Palaeoclimate records indicate a lower ENSO variance during the middle Holocene compared with today1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6; however, model simulations have not reproduced the full magnitude of the changes7, 8, 9, 10, and whether external forcing drives large intrinsic ENSO variability11 is therefore a matter of considerable debate. Here we present a 175-year-long, monthly resolved oxygen isotope record, obtained from a Porites coral microatoll located on Kiritimati (Christmas) Island, in the NINO3.4 region of the central equatorial Pacific. Our quantitative record of ENSO variability about 4,300 years ago shows that ENSO variance was persistently reduced by 79%, compared with today, and it exhibits a dominant annual cycle. Season-specific analysis shows that El Niño events were damped during their September-November growth phase, and delayed relative to the climatological year. We suggest that the higher boreal summer insolation at the time strengthened the tropical Pacific zonal winds as well as the gradients in sea surface temperature, and thereby led to an enhanced annual cycle and suppressed ENSO. As the weak ENSO is subject to interdecadal amplitude modulation, we conclude that amplitude modulation is likely to remain robust under altered climates. Our findings show that ENSO is capable of responding to external forcing.

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