Accessible areas in ecological niche comparisons of invasive species: Recognized but still overlooked

Qiao, Huijie; Escobar, Luis E.; Peterson, A. Townsend

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-01313-2

Cited by 60 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…3B). This imbalance between sensitivity and specificity of the occurrence-based SDM (Table 2) can also be interpreted as its inferior transferability or lack of generality (Qiao et al 2017, Yen et al 2017.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic trials improve the transfer of Douglas‐fir distribution models across continents

et al. 2018

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Climate change is likely to result in novel conditions with no analogy to current climate. Therefore, the application of species distribution models (SDMs) based on the correlation between observed species’ occurrence and their environment is questionable and calls for a better understanding of the traits that determine species occurrence. Here, we compared two intraspecific, trait‐based SDMs with occurrence‐based SDMs, all developed from European data, and analyzed their transferability to the native range of Douglas‐fir in North America. With data from 50 provenance trials of Douglas‐fir in central Europe multivariate universal response functions (URFs) were developed for two functional traits (dominant tree height and basal area) which are good indicators of growth and vitality under given environmental conditions. These trials included 290 North American provenances of Douglas‐fir. The URFs combine genetic effects i.e. the climate of provenance origin and environmental effects, i.e. the climate of planting locations into an integrated model to predict the respective functional trait from climate data. The URFs were applied as SDMs (URF‐SDMs) by converting growth performances into occurrence. For comparison, an ensemble occurrence‐based SDM was developed and block cross validated with the BIOMOD2 modeling platform utilizing the observed occurrence of Douglas‐fir in Europe. The two trait based SDMs and the occurrence‐based SDM, all calibrated with data from Europe, were applied to predict the known distribution of Douglas‐fir in its introduced and native range in Europe and North America. Both models performed well within their calibration range in Europe, but model transfer to its native range in North America was superior in case of the URF‐SDMs showing similar predictive power as SDMs developed in North America itself. The high transferability of the URF‐SDMs is a testimony of their applicability under novel climatic conditions highlighting the role of intraspecific trait variation for adaptation planning in climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic trials improve the transfer of Douglas‐fir distribution models across continents

et al. 2018

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“…Following the recommendations of Broennimann et al (2012) and Petitpierre et al (2017), we calibrated a principal components analysis (PCA) on this global background and used the first two PC axes (containing 84.39% of the variation) as a common climate space. Given that many pines are native to the Northern Hemisphere but naturalized in the Southern Hemisphere, we also plotted the climate of each hemisphere to assess the potential for systematic differences that could influence interpretation of our niche models (Qiao, Escobar, & Peterson, 2017).…”

Section: Niche Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Naturalized distributions show that climatic disequilibrium is structured by niche size in pines (PinusL.)

Perret

Leslie

Sax

2018

Global Ecol Biogeogr

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Aim The assumption that the native distributions of species are in equilibrium with climate has been shown to be frequently violated, despite its centrality to many niche model applications. We currently lack a framework that predicts these violations. Here, we examine whether variation in climatic disequilibrium is structured by properties of species’ native distributions and climatic niches. Location Global. Methods We built climatic niche models for 106 pine (Pinus L.) species, including 25 that have naturalized outside their native range. We measured the extent of climate space occupied exclusively by naturalized populations and considered what fraction of this space was available within the native continent and near the native range. We examined the consequences of disequilibrium for estimates of potential range filling and sister species niche conservatism. Results Most species (23 of 25) have naturalized in climate conditions outside the native niche, leading to increases in the total known suitable climate space. Increases in niche size were negatively related to native niche size. Increases were often large; one species expanded its niche by almost 10% of the global climate space. These increases were associated primarily with cooler, wetter and less seasonal climates. Increases in known niche size lowered potential range filling estimates within species’ native continent and ecoregion. Naturalized data did not strengthen support for niche conservatism among sister species. Main conclusions Among pines, climatic disequilibrium is the norm and not the exception. The magnitude of this disequilibrium can be vast, such that the native range greatly under‐represents the true climatic tolerances of some species. Fortunately, this disequilibrium can be predicted largely by the size of a species’ native niche. Accounting for this disequilibrium can improve our ability to characterize ecological phenomena, including potential range filling. This is an essential step towards improving the conservation value of ecological niche models.

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“…They are included in disciplines as diverse as conservation biology, historical biogeography, evolution, and community ecology (Dennis and Stefan 2009, McCormack et al 2010, Pellissier et al 2013, Guisan et al 2014, all of them rely on interpreting patterns and drivers of species' distributions across landscapes. Despite widespread interest and application, the field remains young and has yet to coalesce on lexicon, methods, and theory (Elton 1927, Jackson and Overpeck 2000, Soberón and Nakamura 2009, Guisan et al 2014, Qiao et al 2017. One limitation faced by many comparative niche studies stems from the fact that niche similarity is often quantified in geographic space (Warren et al 2008(Warren et al , 2010 as opposed to environmental-space , Di Cola et al 2017.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, Petitpierre et al (2012) demonstrated the importance of quantifying analog climates when comparing niche shifts among terrestrial plant invaders. Qiao et al (2017) directly addressed non-equilibrium nature of species' distributions by restricting statistical analyses to accessible analogous climate space. The limited incorporation of non-equilibrium distributions into analyses, in part, is caused by the fact that no available software provides an intuitive or accessible way for researchers to quantify and incorporate non-equilibrium conditions into statistical tests of niche similarity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A tale of two niches: methods, concepts, and evolution

Brown¹,

Carnaval²

2019

Frontiers of Biogeography

101

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Being snapshots in time, the ranges of species may fall short of representing all of the geographic or environmental-space that these taxa are able to occupy. This has important implications for niche studies, yet most comparative studies overlook the transient nature of species' distributions and assume that they are at equilibrium. We review the methods most widely used for niche comparisons today and suggest a modified framework to describe and compare niches based on snapshot range data of species. First, we introduce a new environmental-space-based Niche Equivalencestatistic to test niche similarity between two species, which explicitly incorporates the spatial distribution of environments and their availability into statistical tests. We also introduce a new Background statistic to measure the ability of this Niche Equivalence statistic to detect differences based on the available environmental-space. These metrics enable fair comparisons between different geographies when the ranges of species are out of equilibrium. Based on distinct parameterizations of the new Equivalence and Background statistics, we then propose a Niche Divergence test and a Niche Overlap test, which allow assessment of whether differences between species emerge from true niche divergences. These methods are implemented in a new R package, 'humboldt' and applied to simulated species with pre-defined niches. The new methods improve accuracy of niche similarity and associated tests-consistently outperforming other tests. We show that the quantification of niche similarity should be performed only in environmental-space, which is less sensitive than geographic space to the spatial abundance of key environmental variables. Further, our methods characterize the relationships between non-analogous and analogous climates in the species' distributions, something not available previously. These improvements allow assessment of whether the different environmental-spaces occupied by two taxa emerge from true niche evolution, as opposed to differences in life history and biological interactors, or differences in the variety and configuration of environments accessible to them.

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Accessible areas in ecological niche comparisons of invasive species: Recognized but still overlooked

Cited by 60 publications

References 62 publications

Genetic trials improve the transfer of Douglas‐fir distribution models across continents

Genetic trials improve the transfer of Douglas‐fir distribution models across continents

Naturalized distributions show that climatic disequilibrium is structured by niche size in pines (PinusL.)

A tale of two niches: methods, concepts, and evolution

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