Adaptive policymaking for Airport Strategic Planning

Kwakkel, Jan H.; Walker, Warren E.; Marchau, V.A.W.J.

doi:10.1109/infra.2008.5439665

Cited by 51 publications

(97 citation statements)

References 10 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The process is not necessarily linear, since the monitoring is continuous and may lead to different actions taken at various points over time. The framework was introduced by Walker et al and has been revised and clarified over time [36,37]. The approach has sometimes been called "Dynamic Adaptive Planning" (DAP) in the literature.…”

Section: Adaptive Policymakingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

2013

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers dealing with robustness and adaptive plans have begun to appear, but the literature is fragmented. The papers appear in disparate journals, and deal with a wide variety of policy domains. This paper (1) describes and compares a family of related conceptual approaches to designing a sustainable plan, and (2) describes several computational tools supporting these approaches. The conceptual approaches all have their roots in an approach to longterm planning called Assumption-Based Planning. Guiding principles for the design of a sustainable adaptive plan are: explore a wide variety of relevant uncertainties, connect short-term targets to long-term goals over time, commit to short-term actions while keeping options open, and continuously monitor the world and take actions if necessary. A key computational tool across the conceptual approaches is a fast, simple (policy analysis) model that is used to make large numbers of runs, in order to explore the full range of uncertainties and to identify situations in which the plan would fail. OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2013, 5 956

show abstract

Section: Adaptive Policymakingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

2013

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The DAPP process is a method for planning under conditions of uncertainty [16]; Haasnoot et al [16] set out the basis of DAPP, review the literature leading to its development and provide examples of its application. DAPP integrates two existing adaptive planning approaches, Adaptive Policymaking [24,25] and Adaptation Pathways [26]. Adaptive Policymaking provides a stepwise approach for developing a basic plan or policy, and contingency planning to adapt the plan or policy to new information over time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation

Stephens

Bell

Lawrence

2017

JMSE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:Coastal hazards result from erosion of the shore, or flooding of low-elevation land when storm surges combine with high tides and/or large waves. Future sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of coastal flooding and will exacerbate erosion and raise groundwater levels, forcing vulnerable communities to adapt. Communities, local councils and infrastructure operators will need to decide when and how to adapt. The process of decision making using adaptive pathways approaches, is now being applied internationally to plan for adaptation over time by anticipating tipping points in the future when planning objectives are no longer being met. This process requires risk and uncertainty considerations to be transparent in the scenarios used in adaptive planning. We outline a framework for uncertainty identification and management within coastal hazard assessments. The framework provides a logical flow from the land use situation, to the related level of uncertainty as determined by the situation, to which hazard scenarios to model, to the complexity level of hazard modeling required, and to the possible decision type. Traditionally, coastal flood hazard maps show inundated areas only. We present enhanced maps of flooding depth and frequency which clearly show the degree of hazard exposure, where that exposure occurs, and how the exposure changes with sea-level rise, to better inform adaptive planning processes. The new uncertainty framework and mapping techniques can better inform identification of trigger points for adaptation pathways planning and their expected time range, compared to traditional coastal flooding hazard assessments.

show abstract

“…This approach combines two bodies of literature on planning under uncertainty: work on adaptive policymaking (Walker et al 2001;Kwakkel et al 2010;Hamarat et al 2013) and work on adaptation tipping points and policy pathways (Kwadijk et al 2010;Haasnoot et al 2012;Offermans 2012). A plan is conceptualized as a series of actions taken over time.…”

Section: Adaptation Pathwaysmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dealing with Uncertainties in Fresh Water Supply: Experiences in the Netherlands

Thissen

Kwakkel

Mens

et al. 2015

Water Resour Manage

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Developing fresh water supply strategies for the long term needs to take into account the fact that the future is deeply uncertain. Not only the extent of climate change and the extent and nature of its impacts are unknown, also socio-economic conditions may change in unpredictable ways, as well as social preferences. Often, it is not possible to find solid ground for estimating probabilities for the relevant range of imaginable possible future developments. Yet, some of these may have profound impacts and consequences for society which could be reduced by timely proactive adaptation. In response to these and similar challenges, various approaches, methods and techniques have been proposed and are being developed to specifically address long-term strategy development under so-called deep uncertainty. This paper, first, offers a brief overview of developments in the field of planning under (deep) uncertainty. Next, we illustrate application of three different approaches to fresh water provision planning under uncertainty in case studies in the Netherlands: a resilience approach, oriented to (re) designing fresh water systems in such a way that they will be less vulnerable, resp. will be able to recover easily from future disturbances; a robustness approach, oriented to Water Resour Manage (2017) 31:703-725

show abstract

Adaptive policymaking for Airport Strategic Planning

Cited by 51 publications

References 10 publications

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation

Dealing with Uncertainties in Fresh Water Supply: Experiences in the Netherlands

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About