Addressing drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region

Törnros, Tobias; Menzel, Lucas

doi:10.5194/hess-18-305-2014

Cited by 84 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Finally, we note that we are using a meteorological drought index (SPEI) and simulate population exposure to SPEI < −2 (Bextreme drought^) (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology 2016; Törnros and Menzel 2014). Although SPEI's long time scales (e.g., 24 months) are related to variations in groundwater storage (Vicente-Serrano et al 2009), a comprehensive assessment of drought impacts may, nevertheless, require hydrology-related drought indices (Maskey and Trambauer 2015) and a study of groundwater resources (Green et al 2011).…”

Section: Modeling Exposure To Extreme Droughts In the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the present paper, we calculate the accumulated difference between P and PET in the previous 24 months. To capture the frequency and duration of drought, we define Bextreme drought^as the environmental condition for SPEI < −2, a common threshold value (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology 2016; Potop et al 2013;Törnros and Menzel 2014). This condition may cause devastating social impacts through crop and pasture losses, health and extreme fire risks (Svoboda et al 2002).…”

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confidence: 99%

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The relative importance of climate change and population growth for exposure to future extreme droughts

et al. 2016

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The human consequences of drought are normally addressed in terms of Bwater scarcity^originating from human water use. In these terms, a common prediction to the next few decades is that population growth, not climate change, will be the dominant factor determining numbers living under such scarcity. Here we address the relative importance of increasing human caused extreme drought and increasing population for numbers of humans likely to be directly exposed in the future to such drought. Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in conjunction with an ensemble of 16 CMIP5 climate models we find that, by 2081-2100 under the high emissions scenario RCP 8.5, average worldwide monthly population exposed to extreme drought (SPEI < -2) will increase by 386.8 million to 472.3 million (+426.6% from the current 89.7 million). Anthropogenic climate change is responsible for approximately 230.0 million (59.5%) of that increase with population growth responsible for only 35.5 million (9.2%); the climate change-population growth interaction explains the remaining 121.1 million (31.4%). At the national level, 129 countries will experience increase in drought exposure mainly due to climate change alone; 23 countries primarily due to population growth; and 38 countries primarily due to the interaction between climate change and population growth. Given inherently large uncertainties, projections of future climate impacts should be accepted with caution especially those directed to the regional level, to future population trends, and, of course, where technological, social and security changes are possible.

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Section: Modeling Exposure To Extreme Droughts In the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

The relative importance of climate change and population growth for exposure to future extreme droughts

et al. 2016

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“…Precipitation over Jordan is highly variable in space and time [2,16,46]. According to Mohsen [2], precipitation varies from 6000 to 11,500 million m³/year.…”

Section: Blue Water Scarcity: Actual Versus Maximum Sustainable Blue mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on model simulations for different climate change scenarios, Abdulla et al [18] found that decreases in precipitation will lead to significant decreases in runoff and groundwater recharge in the Zarqa river basin (Figure 1). The percentage of time that the Jordan River basin and its surroundings will experience moderate, severe, and extreme drought conditions is expected to increase in the future [16]. Such droughts can have devastating effects when the agricultural and water management practices in place are unsustainable [19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

Schyns

Hamaideh

Mekonnen

et al. 2015

Water

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Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on estimates of water footprint, water availability, and virtual water trade, we find that groundwater consumption is nearly double the groundwater availability, water pollution aggravates blue water scarcity, and Jordan's external virtual water import dependency is 86%. The review of response options yields 10 ingredients for a strategy for Jordan to mitigate the risks of extreme water scarcity and dependency. With respect to these ingredients, Jordan's current water policy requires a strong redirection towards water demand management. Actual implementation of the plans in the national water strategy (against existing oppositions) would be a first step. However, more attention should be paid to reducing water demand by changing the consumption pattern of Jordanian consumers. Moreover, unsustainable exploitation of the fossil Disi aquifer should soon be halted and planned desalination projects require careful consideration regarding the sustainability of their energy supply. OPEN ACCESSWater 2015, 7 5706

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What Controls Springtime Fine Dust Variability in the Western United States? Investigating the 2002–2015 Increase in Fine Dust in the U.S. Southwest

2017

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We use empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to investigate the role of meteorology in controlling the interannual variability of fine dust concentrations in the western United States during 2002–2015 March–May. We then develop a prediction model to explore the causes of an observed increase in fine dust concentrations during March in the Southwest. For each spring month, 54–61% of the total variance in fine dust anomalies can be explained by the first two leading EOF modes, which consist of a coherent pattern of covariability across the West and a dipole northwest‐southwest pattern. We identify the key meteorological controlling factors to be regional precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture, which are in turn mostly driven by large‐scale changes in sea surface temperature and/or atmospheric circulation patterns, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In addition, fluctuations in the trans‐Pacific transport of Asian dust likely contribute to fine dust variability in March and April. We find that March fine dust concentrations have increased from 2002 to 2015 in the Southwest (0.06 ± 0.04 μg m−3 a−1, p < 0.05). Multiple linear regression analysis suggests that these increases are associated with the following: (1) regionally drier and warmer conditions driven by constructive interference between ENSO and PDO, (2) soil moisture reductions in areas spanning the North American deserts, and (3) enhanced trans‐Pacific transport. Our results provide an observational basis for improving dust emission schemes and for assessing future dust activity under climate change.

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Addressing drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region

Cited by 84 publications

References 56 publications

The relative importance of climate change and population growth for exposure to future extreme droughts

The relative importance of climate change and population growth for exposure to future extreme droughts

Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

What Controls Springtime Fine Dust Variability in the Western United States? Investigating the 2002–2015 Increase in Fine Dust in the U.S. Southwest

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