Ageing, fertility, and growth

Alders, Peter; Broer, D. P.

doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2004.06.001

Cited by 22 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Thus, in line with Alders and Broer () and Bloom et al. (), the fall in the current fertility rate is expected to increase female participation in the labor market and subsequently influence (positively) economic growth in EE.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 53%

“…Thus, in line with Alders and Broer (2004) and Bloom et al (2009), the fall in the current fertility rate is expected to increase female participation in the labor market and subsequently influence (positively) economic growth in EE. However, the lagged values reveal that the past (10 years lagged) rise in the proportion of the old age group and the fall in the proportion of the young age group tend to decrease the EE's economic growth.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 96%

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The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013

Teixeira

Nagarajan

Silva

2016

Review Development Economics

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Studies relating ageing and countries’ economic performance address mostly developed economies. However, extant studies demonstrate that less developed countries (LDC) and emerging economies (EE) are reaching the transition process faster than those from developed regions, which renders the speed of ageing, besides ageing, a critical variable to explore in this context. Comparing system dynamic panel data estimations for 40 LDC, 19 EE and 28 developed countries (DC), between 1990 and 2013, we uncovered that ageing is detrimental to countries’ economic growth, with noticeable nuances depending on countries’ development level. The current level of ageing significantly and negatively impacts on DC's growth but not on that of LDC or EE. For these latter groups, the most relevant issue is the speed of ageing. The current annual growth of old age dependency ratio significantly diminishes EE's growth prospects whereas the lagged annual growth of the ageing index and the old age dependency ratio significantly curtails LDC's growth. Such results emphasize the need for urgent public policies that might mitigate the imbalance in LDCs’ age structure before the speed of ageing leads LDCs to become even much poorer.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 53%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 96%

The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013

Teixeira

Nagarajan

Silva

2016

Review Development Economics

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“…Demografinio senėjimo neigiama įtaka yra taip pat žymiai didesnė Kinijoje nei kituose nagrinėtuose regionuose. Kinijos b 1 …”

Section: įVadasunclassified

Demographic aging impact on economic indicators

Didžgalvytė¹,

Lukšaitė²

2014

AESR

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“…Examples include Cigno (1992), Ehrlich and Lui (1998), Nishimura and Zhang (1992), Rosati (1996), Wigger (1999) and, more recently, Cremer et al . (2006) and Alders and Broer (2005). Another demographic factor related to the pension system is the process of family formation itself, as recently shown by Ehrlich and Kim (2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Payg Pensions and Human Capital Accumulation: Some Unpleasant Arithmetic*

Cipriani

Makris

2011

The Manchester School

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A large literature has studied the effects of Pay‐As‐You‐Go (PAYG) systems on fertility, human capital and growth. We argue that the social security system may also interact with longevity when the latter is endogenously determined. We show that in such an environment, in a dynamically efficient economy PAYG pensions must be sufficiently low in order to ensure positive economic growth. Moreover, a transition to a funded social security system will promote growth, and can thereby take place by fully compensating the losers.

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Ageing, fertility, and growth

Cited by 22 publications

References 25 publications

The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013

The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013

Demographic aging impact on economic indicators

Payg Pensions and Human Capital Accumulation: Some Unpleasant Arithmetic*

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