Ahistoricism in Time-Series Analyses of Historical Process: Critique, Redirection, and Illustrations from U.S. Labor History

Isaac, Larry W.; Griffin, Larry J.

doi:10.2307/2095713

Cited by 222 publications

(115 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Organizational research has traditionally focused on the enduring and stable features of organizations and the environments they inhabit; until recently, far less attention has been paid to history, flux, dynamics, and transformation (Clark 1985, Ancona andChong 1996). Even longitudinal studies of organizations are typically ahistorical in that theorized relationships are assumed to be time-invariant; timeseries analyses usually treat history as the continual unfolding of stable causal processes (Isaac and Griffin 1989). As a consequence, previous research has generally ignored the possibility that profound changes in organizational structures, activities, and performance occur suddenly and may be caused by environmental shifts affecting all organizations of a particular type simultaneously.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Organizational Environments in Flux: The Impact of Regulatory Punctuations on Organizational Domains, CEO Succession, and Performance

Haveman

Russo

Meyer

2001

Organization Science

188

126

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A central debate in organizational theory concerns how organizations evolve. There are two diametrically opposing viewpoints. Adaptation theories predict that change occurs as fluid organizations adjust to meet shifting environmental demands, while selection theories predict that change occurs through the differential selection and replacement of inert organizations as environmental demands vary over time. Our paper bridges these polar opposites by using a punctuated equilibrium framework to examine organizations' responses to discontinuous industrylevel change. This framework recognizes that the histories of many industries are occasionally punctuated by dramatic exogenous shocks, such as radical technological innovation, social and political turmoil, major changes in government regulation, and economic crashes. Our central thesis is that such environmental punctuations dramatically reduce pressures and rewards for organizational inertia and thereby alter both organizations' propensities for change and their survival chances following change.We focus on one form of punctuation, major regulatory change, and study firms in two industries: general hospitals and savings and loan associations. For organizations in both industries, we examine three important outcomes: shifts in organizational domain, CEO succession, and changes in financial performance. Our analyses show that punctuational regulatory change prompts shifts in organizational domains and executive leadership. Additionally, post-punctuation domain change and post-punctuation CEO succession both affect subsequent performance. We discuss our results in light of current thinking about the content and process effects of core organizational change, which has been developed in the context of stable environments. Finally, we argue for the development of more temporally sensitive theories of organizational action. (Organizational Evolution; Punctuated Equilibrium; Deregulation; Organizational Change; Organizational Inertia; Organizational Performance; CEO Succession) Change in the core attributes of organizations is difficult and fraught with peril. Organizational ecologists have proposed that when organizations change, resources are diverted from operating to reorganizing, which reduces efficiency and survival chances (Hannan andFreeman 1984, 1989;Amburgey et al. 1993; Barnett and Carroll 1995). These process effects of core change-the costs associated with redirecting resources from operations to reorganization, learning new routines, and building new relations with exchange partners-are expected to be negative. In contrast, the content effects of core change-the impact of adjusting to fit environmental demands-may be positive or negative, depending on the luck and skill of organizational decision makers and implementers. Considering process and content effects together, core organizational change is likely to impair performance and may even lead to failure.Despite the inherent riskiness of core organizational change, it is sometimes necessary and...

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Organizational Environments in Flux: The Impact of Regulatory Punctuations on Organizational Domains, CEO Succession, and Performance

Haveman

Russo

Meyer

2001

Organization Science

188

126

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“…The time series techniques we employ permit greater precision in describing and explaining historical processes. Applications of time series techniques, however, tend toward "ahistoricism" (Isaac and Griffin 1989). They separate theory from history, employ ahistorical conceptions of time, and privilege statistical over social and political theory.…”

Section: A Measure Of Information About Political Corruptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As further tests of our argument that the post-1929 period differs from the pre-1929 period and thus of our decision to begin our study with the 1932 election we conducted a simple difference-ofmeans test and "moving correlation" analysis (Isaac and Griffin 1989) comparing the two periods.…”

Section: A Measure Of Information About Political Corruptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Political Corruption and Presidential Elections, 1929-1992

Fackler¹,

Lin²

1995

The Journal of Politics

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We develop an aggregate model of the presidential vote based on the appropriation of political as well as economic information by a rational voter. We argue that, depending upon historical context, information about political corruption is relevant to individual, and hence aggregate, vote choice. In preindustrial, community-oriented machine politics, the rational voter exchanged votes for particularistic benefits. As the social and political perspective shifted to a universalistic standard, information about corruption has become for him or her one of the criteria by which to evaluate the performance of the incumbent party. By including information about corruption alongside information about the economy, our model significantly improves upon conventional economic voting models in explaining post-New Deal presidential election outcomes.

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“…Plausible theories of large-scale social processes should be historically grounded (Isaac and Griffin, 1989). Generalizations, including Hofstede's, GLOBE's and Trompenaars' are not.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Claiming too much, delivering too little: testing some of Hofstede’s generalisations

McSweeney

Brown

Iliopoulou

2016

The Irish Journal of Management

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This paper considers Geert Hofstede’s claim that his national cultural ‘dimension scores’ and related rankings of countries enable effective prediction by examining a causal generalisation he has repeatedly used to illustrate that capability. When tested against cross-sectional and longitudinal empirical data about conflicts in industrial relations, the generalisation is shown not to have predictive power. A second generalisation is then tested, which also fails to demonstrate predictive capability. This paper discusses some characteristics of valid cross-national research in the light of these predictive failures.

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Ahistoricism in Time-Series Analyses of Historical Process: Critique, Redirection, and Illustrations from U.S. Labor History

Cited by 222 publications

References 22 publications

Organizational Environments in Flux: The Impact of Regulatory Punctuations on Organizational Domains, CEO Succession, and Performance

Organizational Environments in Flux: The Impact of Regulatory Punctuations on Organizational Domains, CEO Succession, and Performance

Political Corruption and Presidential Elections, 1929-1992

Claiming too much, delivering too little: testing some of Hofstede’s generalisations

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