Air quality in Europe during the summer of 2003 as a prototype of air quality in a warmer climate

Vautard, Robert; Beekmann, Matthias; Desplat, Julien; Hodzic, Alma; Morel, Sophie

doi:10.1016/j.crte.2007.08.003

Cited by 61 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…If conditions like 1988 become more frequent as a result of global warming, the implications for air quality could be severe. Similar inferences can be made for Europe, where the summer 2003 heat wave was associated with exceptionally high ozone (Vautard et al, 2005(Vautard et al, , 2007Guerova and Jones, 2007;Solberg et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 51%

“…Increasing frequency of wildfires from droughts in the future climate could be yet another important factor driving PM increases. The anomalously hot summer 2003 in Europe was associated with record wildfires that significantly degraded air quality for both PM and ozone (Vautard et al, 2007;Solberg et al, 2008). The GCM-CTM study of Spracklen et al (submitted for publication) including projection of climate-driven increase in wildfires finds a 0.5 mg m À3 increase in carbonaceous PM in the western U.S. in summer.…”

Section: Particulate Mattermentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effect of climate change on air quality

Jacob

Winner

2009

Atmospheric Environment

1,606

1,232

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a b s t r a c tAir quality is strongly dependent on weather and is therefore sensitive to climate change. Recent studies have provided estimates of this climate effect through correlations of air quality with meteorological variables, perturbation analyses in chemical transport models (CTMs), and CTM simulations driven by general circulation model (GCM) simulations of 21st-century climate change. We review these different approaches and their results. The future climate is expected to be more stagnant, due to a weaker global circulation and a decreasing frequency of mid-latitude cyclones. The observed correlation between surface ozone and temperature in polluted regions points to a detrimental effect of warming. Coupled GCM-CTM studies find that climate change alone will increase summertime surface ozone in polluted regions by 1-10 ppb over the coming decades, with the largest effects in urban areas and during pollution episodes. This climate penalty means that stronger emission controls will be needed to meet a given air quality standard. Higher water vapor in the future climate is expected to decrease the ozone background, so that pollution and background ozone have opposite sensitivities to climate change. The effect of climate change on particulate matter (PM) is more complicated and uncertain than for ozone. Precipitation frequency and mixing depth are important driving factors but projections for these variables are often unreliable. GCM-CTM studies find that climate change will affect PM concentrations in polluted environments by AE0.1-1 mg m À3 over the coming decades. Wildfires fueled by climate change could become an increasingly important PM source. Major issues that should be addressed in future research include the ability of GCMs to simulate regional air pollution meteorology and its sensitivity to climate change, the response of natural emissions to climate change, and the atmospheric chemistry of isoprene. Research needs to be undertaken on the effect of climate change on mercury, particularly in view of the potential for a large increase in mercury soil emissions driven by increased respiration in boreal ecosystems.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 51%

Section: Particulate Mattermentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of climate change on air quality

Jacob

Winner

2009

Atmospheric Environment

1,606

1,232

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“…According to Vautard et al [7], the summer of 2003 provides a powerful case study for anticipating the impacts of summertime climate change in Europe.…”

Section: Study Periodmentioning

confidence: 99%

Air quality, climate change and resilience in the Porto urban area

Borrego

Martins

Amorim

et al. 2014

WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment

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The combined effect of global climate change and urban growth makes people in cities more vulnerable to environmental problems like extreme weather and poor air quality. Project CLICURB aims at assessing the impact of future climate on urban areas and how cities can adapt to reduce exposure and sensitivity to those impacts. CLICURB focuses on Porto, a European urban area experiencing accelerated rates of urbanization and simultaneously presenting poor air quality.In the framework of one of CLICURB's tasks, regarding the implementation and effectiveness of adaptation measures, the WRF-UCM-CAMx numerical modelling system was used to evaluate the effects of the expansion of Porto's City Park on meteorology and air quality. Two high spatial resolution simulations were conducted for the study area, current and expanded, for a twoday period contained in a heat wave. Results indicate that the expansion improves local microclimatic conditions, with temperature decreases and slight increases in wind speed; regarding air quality, ground-level concentrations of pollutants present negligible variations.The project also aims to assess the effects of wind dynamics and streetcanyon configuration on pedestrian comfort. For this purpose, a micro-scale modelling approach, based on the application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model Fluent ® , was carried out for a study area with approximately 600 x 600 m 2 . Eight typical meteorological situations were defined based on climate observation analysis. Results allow the identification of areas non-compliant with an international criterion for human comfort and where measures for mitigating the wind speed would improve conditions for outdoor activities.

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“…Research conducted across many settings, including both observational and model perturbation studies, suggests that elevated O 3 concentrations are most strongly linked with increases in temperature (Jacob and Winner, 2009;Pearce et al, 2011). Exceptionally high O 3 levels were observed in Europe in August 2003 associated with hot and dry heat-wave conditions (Vautard et al, 2007). In an analysis of covariance performed on observed daily O 3 maxima in Switzerland during the 1992-2002 period, Ordónez et al (2005) found that temperature and global radiation accounted for most of the meteorological variability in summer O 3 concentration.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed and predicted sensitivities of extreme surface ozone to meteorological drivers in three US cities

Fix

Cooley

Hodžić

et al. 2018

Atmospheric Environment

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We conduct a case study of observed and simulated maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) ozone (O 3) in three US cities for summers during 1996-2005. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of a high resolution atmospheric chemistry model to reproduce observed relationships between meteorology and high or extreme O 3. We employ regional coupled chemistry-transport model simulations to make three types of comparisons between simulated and observational data, comparing (1) tails of the O 3 response variable, (2) distributions of meteorological predictor variables, and (3) sensitivities of high and extreme O 3 to meteorological predictors. This last comparison is made using two methods: quantile regression, for the 0.95 quantile of O 3 , and tail dependence optimization, which is used to investigate even higher O 3 extremes. Across all three locations, we find substantial di↵erences between simulations and observational data in both meteorology and meteorological sensitivities of high and extreme O 3 .

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Air quality in Europe during the summer of 2003 as a prototype of air quality in a warmer climate

Cited by 61 publications

References 58 publications

Effect of climate change on air quality

Effect of climate change on air quality

Air quality, climate change and resilience in the Porto urban area

Observed and predicted sensitivities of extreme surface ozone to meteorological drivers in three US cities

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