Alternative Futures at the Mānoa School

Dator, Jim

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-07809-0_5

Cited by 68 publications

(122 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The need to manage the combinatorial explosion in the number of scenarios which may arise from concurrently addressing several issues and drivers has led many teams to adopt the double uncertainty, grid or 2 × 2 matrix approach [9,45,[114][115][116][117], in which the two most important or most uncertain issues under analysis define the axes of a 2D futures' plane in which the resulting four quadrants provide alternative paths to explore. A different, but somehow related, approach relies on the observation that different teams dealing with different foresight questions even in different cultural contexts often converge towards a small number of themes, or future "archetypes" [9,11,[115][116][117][118][119][120][121][122][123][124][125][126][127][128][129]. In applied foresight exercises, often these archetypes are plotted on a 2 × 2 plane or may naturally emerge from the choice of the double uncertainty axis, which results is a certain overlap between the archetypes and grid approaches [4][5][6]9,12,13,123,[130][131][132].…”

Section: Analysis: Interpreting Our Results Within Common Narratives mentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

2014

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Abstract:In four focus group exercises involving both forecasting and backcasting approaches, we gave approximately 100 Australian citizens the opportunity to discuss likely, desirable and feared futures to 2050. The image they paint is both coherent and consistent. Education, governance, personal attitudes and societal trends, rather than specific events, are drivers of a future which is perceived as being largely shaped by human choices. Innovation is believed to be more necessary in novel social arrangements than in further technology. The most feared futures arise from an amplification of trends already at play in the present: economic growth at the expense of the environment and quality of life, lack of equity, poor government, corporate greed, commercialism and erosion of social values. Economic and material growth does not feature in the most desired futures which are local, inclusive, peaceful, equitable and in some cases frugal. The visions and scenarios developed find a place within established foresight frameworks and global political narratives, but seem to lie at the fringe of current media and short-term political discourse. These results should not be interpreted as representative of the overall Australian population, but suggest that extending the analysis to the broader community could provide significant insights and enrich the discussion of important societal choices. OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2015, 7 223

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Section: Analysis: Interpreting Our Results Within Common Narratives mentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

2014

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“…Considering these characteristics, an inductive scenario method was applied with inspiration on the stepwise Manoa Approach [12,13]. The applied approach was adapted to the fact that besides the technical requisites above, there were context and human constraints.…”

Section: Development Of Global Future Scenarios and Identification Ofmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transport demand evolution in Europe – factors of change, scenarios and challenges

et al. 2015

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In the transport sector, where change comes with inertia and investments are made with a long term perspective, decision makers need to consider how the future may look like in the very long term. The work presented in this paper is a scenario analysis focusing on the evolution of transport demand towards 2050, aiming to identify related challenges for European industrial and policy players. It follows up on the work of other recent attempts to study the future of transport from a European perspective, integrating findings from these studies, updating new trends and applying a specific scenario analysis methodology relying also on expert consultation. The diversity of the scenarios created unfolds aspects of the future transport system with rather different outcomes on issues like the volume of transport, travel motives, the prevalent spatial scales of transport and logistics, people's preferences towards different transport attributes, the relevancy of the State versus the private initiative in transport production, the level of competition, or the relative importance of environment and resource scarcity in setting an agenda for innovation and regulations. Beyond the subsequent challenges and opportunities identified in this work, the scenarios developed may be a useful basis for individual actors of distinct backgrounds to build their own specific futures, supporting them in defining strategies for the future.

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“…It should be mentioned here that a worst-case or best-case scenario do not necessarily exist, since in every 'disaster' there are always 'winners' and 'losers' , and utopias probably remain impossible dreams. All scenarios can be 'positive' to those who prefer them and negative to those who don't (Dator, 2009).…”

Section: Archetypes and London's Futuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this future, governments, educational systems and organizations aim to build a vibrant economy, and develop the people, institutions and technologies to keep the economy growing and changing, forever (Dator, 2009). …”

Section: Archetypes and London's Futuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenarios and the future of London

Semertzidis¹,

Paskins²

2013

Imagining the Future City: London 2062

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What are scenarios?It is impossible to predict, with absolute certainty, what will happen tomorrow, let alone fifty years hence. Our lives are subject to myriad influences, physical and social forces that shape both the world we live in and the relationships between actors. In a city the size of London, the number of individuals and organisations is enormous, and the number of interactions is probably beyond calculation.Thinking about the future in terms of current trends is a common approach. For instance, the introduction to this book includes predictions about global population, forecasts about how many of those people will live in London and projections about the implications for the capital's housing, transport and education sectors. These figures are important and thought provoking, they frame debate and help identify priorities. However, simply following trends does not allow for the possibility of substantive, disruptive, change (Lombardi et al, 2012).When setting out policies that will determine the development of London's housing, flood defences, transport infrastructure or energy supply, it is not enough to say that the future is complex and unknowable. How can we deal with decisions made in an uncertain present that will have long-term consequences, extending into an even more uncertain future?Even if we can't make accurate predictions or forecasts about the future, we can at least be clear about our assumptions, our decisions and their likely consequences. One way to do this is to consider different 'scenarios' . Scenario analysis has been defined as 'a tool for ordering one's perceptions about alternative future environments in which one's decisions might be played out. Alternatively: 'a set of organized ways for us to dream effectively about our own future' (Schwartz, 1991).Scenarios are stories, descriptions of alternative destinations, a medium through which to share ideas about possible futures. The scenarios approach can embrace both scientific inquiry about

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Alternative Futures at the Mānoa School

Cited by 68 publications

References 6 publications

Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

Transport demand evolution in Europe – factors of change, scenarios and challenges

Scenarios and the future of London

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