An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability

Abstract

This paper develops an econometric model of stochastic production functions to quantify the impacts of climatic variables on the mean, variance, and covariance of crop yields. The estimates of the production function parameters and their elasticities are utilized to analyse the impacts of the projected climate change on agriculture. The results show that the climate change will have modest effects on the mean crop yields, but will significantly reduce the variance and covariance for most of the crops considered. The results have implications for allocations of agricultural land among crops and for crop production mix.

Effect of Climate Variables on Yield of Major Food-Crops in Nepal: A Time-Series Analysis

“…In addition, though it is unequivocal that global warming is inevitable in the coming century, even if emission of green-house gases is stabilized at current level, there exists debate and uncertainty on the extent of warming as well as other related changes (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007;Rosegrant, Ewing, Yohe, Ian Burton, & Valmonte-Santos, 2008). Thus, predictions of the yield changes in response to changes in climate variables, from regression models based on historical climatic and yield data for specific crops are relatively accurate (Boubacar, 2010;Isik & Devadoss, 2006;Lobell & Asner, 2003;Lobell & Field, 2007;Mendelsohn, Nordhaus, & Shaw, 1994;Lobell, Ortiz-Monasterio, Asner, Matson, Naylor, & Falcon, 2005). This can be done through application of production function as follows (Nicholls, 1997;Lobell & Field, 2007);…”

“…Most studies on the possible impact of climate change on crop yields used mainly indirect crop simulation models that make use of crop biophysical simulation. There are relatively limited studies based on regression model (Boubacar, 2010;Mendelsohn, 2009;Isik & Devadoss, 2006;You, Rosegrant, Fang, & Wood, 2005;Peng, et al, 2004). Crop simulation type of study will help to understand the physiological effects of high temperature on crop yield but not the effects of small increase in temperature associated with global warming (Schlenker & Roberts, 2008).…”

“…The vast majority of such researches are done in developed countries (Kim & Pang, 2009;Carew, Smith, & Grant, 2009;Isik & Devadoss, 2006;Chen, McCarl, & Schimmelpfennig, 2004;Lobell & Asner, 2003;Stooksbury & Michaels, 1994). There are very limited literatures in the case of developing countries, which are going to be adversely affected by predicted climate change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007;Isik & Devadoss, 2006;Lobell & Asner, 2003;Stooksbury & Michaels, 1994;Rosenzweig & Parry, 1994;Chen, McCarl, & Schimmelpfennig, 2004). Therefore, this study analyzes the effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal based on historical data.…”

Yield Variability and Agricultural Trade

“…Our interest in yield variability comes from the fact that yields of rain-fed grains and oilseeds remain highly variable despite decades of agronomic advances (FAO 2008, Chen, McCarl, and Schimmelpfennig 2004, Isik and Devadoss 2006. Yield variability is largely a function of weather and may be exacerbated by widespread adoption of common high-yielding varieties and uniform agronomic practices (Anderson and Hazell 1987).…”

Land Use and Climate Change

“…Regarding the effect of precipitation, Chen, McCarl, and Schimmelpfennig (2004), Isik and Devadoss (2006), and McCarl, Villavicencio, and Wu (2008 find that increased precipitation enhances yields of corn, cotton, soybeans, winter wheat, and sorghum, while it has a negative impact on wheat. An inverted-U shape relationship between corn and soybean yield and precipitation is found in Schlenker and Roberts (2009) and Huang and Khanna (2010).…”