An Approach for Frequency Analysis of Multiyear Drought Durations

Lee, Kil Seong; Sadeghipour, Jamshid; Dracup, John A.

doi:10.1029/wr022i005p00655

Cited by 41 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…LEE et al (1986) ont effectué une analyse de fréquence des durées des sécheresses multiannuelles à l'aide des processus ponctuels de renouvellement. Une sécheresse a lieu lorsque le débit moyen annuel est inférieur à un seuil égal à la moyenne des débits moyens annuels.…”

Section: L'application Des Processus Ponctuels Aux éTiagesunclassified

La modélisation stochastique des étiages: une revue bibliographique

Abi‐Zeid¹,

Bobée²

2005

rseau

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SUMMARYThe increasing pressure on the water resources requires better management of the water déficit situations may it be unusual droughts or yearly recurring low-flows. It is therefore important to model the occurrence of thèse déficit events in order to quantify the related risks. Many approaches exist for the modeling of low-flow/drought events. We présent hère a literature review of the stochastic methods. We start by clarifying the différence between lowflows and droughts, two ternis which are often used interchangeably. We then présent some low-flow and drought indicators.The stochastic approach may be divided into two catégories: Frequency analysis and stochastic processes. Most frequency analysis studies aim to assign to a flow value X a cumulative frequency, either directly using empirical distribution fonctions, or by fitting a theoretical distribution. This allows the computation of a critical flow x T corresponding to a return period T, such that P(X < x T ) = -Thèse studies use mostly the annual minima of daily flows T where the hydrological data is assumed independent and identically distributed. It is also common to analyze Q m , the annual minimum of the m-consecutive days average flow, m being generally 7,10,30, 60, 90, or 120 days, and to adopt as critical flow the m-day average having a return period of T years. The distributions which are used include the Normal, Weibull, Gumbel, Gamma, Log-Normal (2) In conclusion, we remark that frequency analysis does not take into account well the duration aspects and uses simplifying stationarity hypothesis. Séries analysis provides duration distributions for simple flow processes. The advantage of point processes is that they can model complex, dépendent and nonstationary processes. Furthermore, alternating point processes can be used to model déficit durations and generate synthetic data such as occurrences of déficit and surplus events. We argue that the duration of low-flows is an important issue which has not received a lot of attention.

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Section: L'application Des Processus Ponctuels Aux éTiagesunclassified

La modélisation stochastique des étiages: une revue bibliographique

Abi‐Zeid¹,

Bobée²

2005

rseau

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“…However, most of these studies are limited in the sense that they investigate regional drought patterns without temporal considerations. Spatial variability and frequency analysis of droughts are presented by Horn (1989) and Lee et al (1986).…”

Section: Drought Featuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-temporal drought analysis in the Trakya region, Turkey

Sirdas¹,

Şen²

2003

Hydrological Sciences Journal

111

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Since droughts are natural phenomena, their occurrence cannot be predicted with certainty and thus it must be treated as a random variable. Once drought duration and magnitude have been found objectively, it is possible to plan for the transport of water in known quantities to drought-stricken areas either from alternative water resources or from water stored during wet periods. The summation of deficits over a particular period is referred to as the drought magnitude. Drought intensity is the ratio of drought magnitude to its duration. These drought properties at different truncation levels provide significant hydrological and hydrometeorological design quantities. In this study, the run analysis and z-score are used for determining drought properties of given hydrological series. In addition, kriging is used as a spatial drought analysis for mapping. This study is applied to precipitation records for İstanbul, Edirne, Tekirdağ and Kırklareli in the Trakya region, Turkey and then the drought period, magnitude and standardized precipitation index (SPI) values are presented to depict the relationships between drought duration and magnitude.Key words spatio-temporal drought; duration; deficit; intensity; magnitude; run analysis; SPI Analyse spatio-temporelle des sécheresses dans la région de Trakya, en Turquie Résumé Dans la mesure où les sécheresses sont des phénomènes naturels, leur occurrence ne peut pas être prévue avec certitude et doit donc être considérée comme une variable aléatoire. Une fois que la durée et l'amplitude de la sécheresse ont été évaluées objectivement, il est possible de planifier le transport d'eau, pour des quantités connues, vers les zones victimes de sécheresse depuis des ressources en eau alternatives ou depuis des stocks mobilisés en périodes humides. L'intensité de la sécheresse est le rapport entre l'amplitude de la sécheresse et sa durée. Ces propriétés de la sécheresse, avec différents niveaux critiques, fournissent des grandeurs hydrologiques et hydrométéorologiques significatives pour la planification. Dans cette étude, nous utilisons l'analyse de séquences et le score centré réduit pour déterminer les propriétés des sécheresses de séries hydrologiques données. De plus, nous utilisons le krigeage pour analyser les sécheresses dans l'espace et produire des cartes. Cette étude est une application à des enregistrements de précipitation à Istanbul, Edirne, Tekirdağ et Kırklareli dans la région de Trakya, en Turquie. Nous présentons les périodes de sécheresse et les valeurs d'amplitude et d'indice standardisé de précipitation (ISP) afin de décrire les relations qui existent entre la durée et l'amplitude de la sécheresse.

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“…Based on this definition, both simulation studies have been carried out in order to fit probability distributions to drought parameters extracted from simulated series generated by a streamflow generation techniques (Millan and Jevjevich, 1971) and analytic distributions have been fitted directly to historical data to obtain the probability distribution of maximum drought duration and severity. Other approaches to multiyear drought frequency analysis based on the above definition include the application of multiple linear regression techniques to derive estimates of drought parameters using watershed and climatic information (Paulson et al, 1985) as well as the use of hazard-function models to reproduce the duration-dependent termination rate of a drought data set (Lee et al, 1986).…”

Section: Previous Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology – A comparison of methods

Arena¹,

Cannarozzo²,

Mazzola³

2006

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C

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This paper compares two generators of yearly water availabilities from sources located at multiple sites with regard to their ability to reproduce the characteristics of historical critical periods and to provide reliable results in terms of the return period of critical sequences of different length. The two models are a novel multi-site Markov mixture model explicitly accounting for drought occurrences and a multivariate ARMA. In the case of the multisite Markov mixture model parameter estimation is limited to a search in the parameter space guided by the value of parameter k to show the sensitivity of the model to this parameter. Application to two of the longest time series of streamflows available in Sicily (Italy) shows that the models can provide quite different results in terms of estimated return periods of historic droughts, although they seem to perform more uniformly when it comes to simulate drought-related statistics such as drought length, severity and intensity. The role of parameter selection for the multisite Markov mixture model and of the marginal probability of generated flows in providing results consistent with the characteristics of the observed series is discussed. Both models are applied to the system of sources supplying the city of Palermo (Sicily) and its environs showing the applicability of the newly developed multisite Markov mixture model to medium-to-large scale water resources systems.

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An Approach for Frequency Analysis of Multiyear Drought Durations

Cited by 41 publications

References 10 publications

La modélisation stochastique des étiages: une revue bibliographique

La modélisation stochastique des étiages: une revue bibliographique

Spatio-temporal drought analysis in the Trakya region, Turkey

Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology – A comparison of methods

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