An Approach to the short- and long-term forecasting of strong earthquakes: A case study of the M w = 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, Japan, March 11, 2011

Abstract

Seismic hazard forecasts submitted in real time mode to the Kamchatkan Branch of the Russian Expert Council (KB REC) on Earthquake Prediction, Seismic Hazard, and Risk Assessment are described. In the first long term forecasts (September 7 and November 9, 2009), based on the GLOBAS_place tech nique (GLOBal Activation of Seismicity), we forecasted the occurrence of earthquakes with M ≥ 6.6 in the region of 35° N-40° N (Japan) and in three other regions of the world. In the forecasts submitted on Febru ary 25, and March 2 and 3, 2011, we indicated the possibility of more than one earthquake with M w ≥ 8 occur ring starting from noon, March 3. Forecasts were based on the GLOBAS techniques and recording of remote precursors using instrumental methods. Precursors were recorded before the Tohoku earthquake with a pre ceding time of up to 28 days based on the dynamics of molecular hydrogen (Kamchatka) and less than 8 days based on the bulk deformations in the area of town of Aleksandrov (Moscow Syneclise, East European Cra ton). A complex analysis of the data, performed within the framework of the techniques used, confirms the possibility of forecasting the time of occurrence, magnitude, and place of strong earthquakes with M ≥ 8.

Soil geochemistry of hydrogen and other gases along the San Andreas Fault

“…Others claim that the Earth's interior was originally hydrogen-rich (Shcherbakov and Kozlova, 1986;Toulhoat and Zgonnik, 2022) or that there are significant H2 concentrations in the core (Isaev et al, 2007). Serpentinization of iron-rich rocks may be a major secondary source of natural hydrogen (Gaucher, 2020;Boreham et al, 2021), and multiple occurrences of hydrogen have been documented near faults where they have also been used for earthquake prediction (Wakita et al, 1980;Ware et al, 1984;Satake et al, 1984;Sato et al, 1984, Arai et al, 2008Fongliang and Gui-ru (1981); Sugisaki et al, 1983;Rogozhin et al, 2010;Shirokov et al, 2015;Jones and Pirkle, 1981). Wakita et al (1980) reported up to 3% hydrogen by volume along the Yamasaki fault in southwestern Japan, and Sugisaki et al (1983) reported up to 9.36% hydrogen along other active faults in Japan.…”