An assessment of the impact of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on autumn droughts in North China based on the Palmer drought severity index

Wang, Min; Gu, Qinxue; Jia, Xiangping; Ge, Jingwen

doi:10.1002/joc.6158

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…However, given the short observational record, the complexity of multivariate physical and ecological variability, and the inability to satisfactorily model these complex interactions, mechanistic understanding of ecological correlations with climate indices remains poor. As a result, the PDO and NPGO indices are commonly employed as covariates in correlative studies that fit statistical models to estimate the effects of climate variability for fisheries management (25,27,28), hydrology (29)(30)(31), agriculture (32)(33)(34), and economic planning (35,36). Statistical approaches commonly used in these correlative studies may produce era-dependent errors in inference when confronted with nonstationary relationships of the kind we document here (14,26,37,38).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The changing physical and ecological meanings of North Pacific Ocean climate indices

Litzow

Hunsicker

Bond

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Climate change is likely to change the relationships between commonly used climate indices and underlying patterns of climate variability, but this complexity is rarely considered in studies using climate indices. Here, we show that the physical and ecological conditions mapping onto the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index have changed over multidecadal timescales. These changes apparently began around a 1988/1989 North Pacific climate shift that was marked by abrupt northeast Pacific warming, declining temporal variance in the Aleutian Low (a leading atmospheric driver of the PDO), and increasing correlation between the PDO and NPGO patterns. Sea level pressure and surface temperature patterns associated with each climate index changed after 1988/1989, indicating that identical index values reflect different states of basin-scale climate over time. The PDO and NPGO also show time-dependent skill as indices of regional northeast Pacific ecosystem variability. Since the late 1980s, both indices have become less relevant to physical–ecological variability in regional ecosystems from the Bering Sea to the southern California Current. Users of these climate indices should be aware of nonstationary relationships with underlying climate variability within the historical record, and the potential for further nonstationarity with ongoing climate change.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The changing physical and ecological meanings of North Pacific Ocean climate indices

Litzow

Hunsicker

Bond

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Generally, either heat events or drought events in China has been increased since the late 1990s, possibly due to the combined effects of long term trend of global warming and multi-decadal/multi-annual variability (e.g. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and El Nino) 42 , 43 , 45 . As a result, CDHEs have increased spatially and temporally.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, CDHEs are found to have become more persistent. As CDHE is a concurrent event of drought and heat, some studies have already found that both heat and drought events in China have been prolonged during the past decade 43 , 46 mainly because of global warming, the influence of ocean conditions, and regional land-use and land management changes. Noticeably, there may exist positive feedback between heat events and drought events 47 , 48 , especially under the global warming background.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

More frequent and widespread persistent compound drought and heat event observed in China

Zhai

2020

Sci Rep

103

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Compound drought and heat event (CDHE) causes severe impacts on agriculture, ecosystem, and human health. Based on daily maximum surface air temperature and meteorological drought composite index data in China, changing features of CDHEs in warm season from 1961 to 2018 is explored at a daily time scale based on a strict and objective definition in this study. Results reveal that CDHEs have occurred more frequently and widely in China, especially since the late 1990s. Notably, such changes are more obvious in Southwest China, eastern Northwest China, northern North China, and the coastal area of southeastern China. A prominent feature is that persistent CDHEs on a daily scale have increased significantly. To better understand climate change of compound extreme events, further studies on the physical mechanism, especially attribution analyses at a regional scale, are urgently needed.

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“…To detect meteorological drought as well as flood, various indexes are proposed, such as the Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) [18] and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) [19], which have been widely used all over the world [20,21]. PDSI, which is based on the anomalies of the supply and demand components in the water balance equation, has a complex structure with an exceptionally long memory [22,23].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Evolution of Drought, Flood, and Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Events under Climate Change Using the Daily SWAP Index

Zhao

Weng

Chen

et al. 2020

Water

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With the increase of drought and flood frequency, the drought-flood abrupt alternation events occur frequently. Due to the coexistence and rapid transformation of drought and flood, the drought-flood abrupt alternation events is often more harmful and threatening than the single drought or flood event to the security of the society. This study is to synthetically evaluate the evolving characteristics of drought, flood, and drought-flood abrupt alternation events under climate change, which are identified by using the Standard Weighted Average Precipitation (SWAP) index. The variability of drought, flood, and drought-flood abrupt alternation events in the future is predicted by using GCM projections, whose outputs are corrected by using a daily bias correction method. The results show that: (1) The SWAP index has the capability to judge reliably the onset, duration, and intensity over the study areas, and can be used to monitor drought-flood abrupt alternation events efficiently; (2) In the reference period (1961–2005), for the drought-flood abrupt alternation events, the frequency has a downward trend in the upper reaches and an upward trend in the lower reaches, and the spatial distribution of intensity shows a contrary law to that of frequency; (3) The frequency and intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation events show an upward trend in the whole basin in the future period (2021–2095), under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. These results indicate that drought-flood abrupt alternation events can be more frequent, and the intensity will significantly increase in the 21st century, which may likely pose a serious impact on this basin.

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An assessment of the impact of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on autumn droughts in North China based on the Palmer drought severity index

Cited by 12 publications

References 22 publications

The changing physical and ecological meanings of North Pacific Ocean climate indices

The changing physical and ecological meanings of North Pacific Ocean climate indices

More frequent and widespread persistent compound drought and heat event observed in China

Analysis of the Evolution of Drought, Flood, and Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Events under Climate Change Using the Daily SWAP Index

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