An Evaluation of the Treatment of Risk and Uncertainties in the IPCC Reports on Climate Change

Self Cite

A risk analysis science is developing, characterized by knowledge generation on concepts, principles, theories, frameworks, methods, and models, for understanding, assessing, characterizing, communicating, and managing risk (for short referred to as conceptual knowledge generation in risk analysis), as well as supporting risk knowledge generation of specific activities based on these concepts, principles, theories, frameworks, methods, and models. The scientific knowledge generation is based on different types of research methods. This article provides a discussion of some of these, the main purpose being to demonstrate the central role of conceptual knowledge generation and research in risk analysis. The importance of this type of knowledge generation and research is considered undervalued in risk analysis. Several examples are used to illustrate the discussion, including a risk governance framework and the anti-fragility concept.

Section: Core Research Methods Of Risk Analysis: Type (A)supporting

confidence: 80%

Reflections on the Use of Conceptual Research in Risk Analysis

Aven¹

2018

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“…When a risk problem is addressed for the A type of knowledge production, for example, in climate change research, the risk analysis science as described here provides strong guidance on how to deal with risk and uncertainties. Current practice has shown that there is a substantial potential for improvements . Another example is the Global Risk Reports by the World Economic Forum that present a “risk landscape” using the dimensions of likelihood and impact, developed from a survey of a large number of members of the World Economic Forum's global multistakeholder community.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Current practice has shown that there is a substantial potential for improvements. (27) Another example is the Global Risk Reports by the World Economic Forum that present a "risk landscape" using the dimensions of likelihood and impact, developed from a survey of a large number of members of the World Economic Forum's global multistakeholder community. Starting from a risk analysis science as outlined here, this risk landscape would have been quite different from the one now presented.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Emerging New Risk Analysis Science: Foundations and Implications

Aven

2017

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To solve real-life problems-such as those related to technology, health, security, or climate change-and make suitable decisions, risk is nearly always a main issue. Different types of sciences are often supporting the work, for example, statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences. Risk analysis approaches and methods are also commonly used, but risk analysis is not broadly accepted as a science in itself. A key problem is the lack of explanatory power and large uncertainties when assessing risk. This article presents an emerging new risk analysis science based on novel ideas and theories on risk analysis developed in recent years by the risk analysis community. It builds on a fundamental change in thinking, from the search for accurate predictions and risk estimates, to knowledge generation related to concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods, and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and (in a broad sense) manage risk. Examples are used to illustrate the importance of this distinct/separate risk analysis science for solving risk problems, supporting science in general and other disciplines in particular.

“…In all case studies, a realist perspective on flood, with technocratic emergency response, existed situated in Q1, defining risk too narrowly. Continuing to plan for events such as these based on traditional methods of realist or actuarial calculations of risk, while their frequency increases, will be problematic . The only exception was Mendoza, where water is valued so much that excess water is favorably viewed; citizens framed “floods” as “favorable” events.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mendoza employed a deep complex structure of water governance through riverbed inspectors, a general user assembly, and irrigator cooperatives, arguably displaying certain aspects of 24 A similar conclusion is made in relation to the IPCC; see Aven and Ren. (138) adaptive co-management (for those with water rights associated with their land). Although a similar system exists in Chile, its federal bureaucratic structure and the water market removes most policy problems from Q4 to a purview outside of Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood

Hurlbert

Gupta

2015

As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy.