An index of coastal thermal effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the Peruvian Upwelling Ecosystem

Quispe-Ccalluari, Carlos; Tam, Jorge; Demarcq, Hervé; Chamorro, Adolfo; Espinoza-Morriberón, Dante; Romero, Carlos; Domínguez, Noel; Ramos, Jorge E.; Oliveros‐Ramos, Ricardo

doi:10.1002/joc.5493

Cited by 13 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 43 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Different hypotheses on the stock-recruit model parameters showed that both α and β variations produce similar patterns in the recruitment deviates, but the α variation seems more plausible. Our Ccalluari et al, 2018). This agreed with the RS of the PDO (Mantua et al, 1997;Salvatteci et al, 2018) and with persistent changes in oxygen conditions (e.g., decreased dissolved oxygen saturation and shallower oxyclines; Bertrand et al, 2011) that date back to the late 1990s.…”

Section: Regime Shifts and Hypotheses Of Recruitment Variationsupporting

confidence: 87%

A delay‐differential model for representing small pelagic fish stock dynamics and its application for assessing alternative management strategies under environmental uncertainty

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We present a novel adaptation of the classic discrete delay-difference model, a continuous delay-differential model (cDDM), which can adequately represent population dynamics of stocks that turn over rapidly and continuously over time (e.g., small pelagic fish, small tunas, and shrimps). We used the Northern-Central Peruvian anchoveta stock (Engraulis ringens, Engraulidae) as a case study for implementing the cDDM and conducted a management strategy evaluation (MSE) through stochastic optimization in policy space (SOPS). Our results showed that cDDM integrated with SOPS efficiently searches optimum and near-optimum harvest control rules (HCR) and is an alternative to pre-setting arbitrary HCRs as in traditional MSE. The cDDM showed comparable stock biomass and recruitment estimate reconstructions to more complex stock assessment models described for anchoveta. We concluded that the anchoveta stock is sustainably managed and is an example of adaptive fisheries management under high ocean-climate variability and uncertainty. Contrary to fishery textbooks, the anchoveta's collapse was not entirely due to the 1972 El Niño (EN) but a recruitment failure preceding EN. Our reconstructions revealed that low recruitment (or recruitment failure) could still occur at high stock biomass. Anchoveta's stock biomass is larger than pre-collapse, likely due to favourable environmental conditions (a cooling trend) and management, despite more frequent and stronger EN events. SOPS quickly revealed that harvest strategies with large base biomass (>5 mmt) lead to higher interannual stock variability and would not produce substantial increases in long-term yield. Alternative HCRs with lower base biomass, while adjusting for productivity regimes, have similar long-term yields without affecting the long-term average stock.

show abstract

Section: Regime Shifts and Hypotheses Of Recruitment Variationsupporting

confidence: 87%

A delay‐differential model for representing small pelagic fish stock dynamics and its application for assessing alternative management strategies under environmental uncertainty

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Factors contributing to the variance around our measured estimates of the thresholds likely include annual differences in the food availability at Paracas that supports migratory preparation (e.g. due to ENSO values [ 42 ]), differences in the proportions of birds from different breeding sites (because migratory distance has a strong influence on oversummering), the frequency distribution of pre-migratory condition in the overwinter population, and the accuracy with which individuals are able to assess their own condition.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As implied by previous studies of shorebird oversummering (see Introduction), we hypothesize that the ability to undertake the breeding migration is condition-dependent. Due to relatively poor condition, (perhaps due to parasitic infection, low wing or plumage quality, or low fat stores [ 42 ]) some individuals decide to oversummer, trading off the fitness benefit of higher survival against the fitness cost of a foregone breeding opportunity. In this Appendix we estimate the magnitude of the survival advantage required to compensate.…”

Section: Appendixmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oversummering juvenile and adult Semipalmated sandpipers in Perú gain enough survival to compensate for foregone breeding opportunity

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Age at maturity and the timing of first breeding are important life history traits. Most small shorebird species mature and breed as ‘yearlings’, but have lower reproductive success than adults. In some species, yearlings may defer northward migration and remain in non-breeding regions (‘oversummering’) until they reach 2 years of age. Some adults also oversummer. Oversummering would be favoured by natural selection if survival were as a result raised sufficiently to compensate for the missed breeding opportunity. Several thousand Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) spend the non-breeding period at Paracas, Perú, including individuals with long bills (likely from eastern Arctic breeding populations ~ 8000 km distant) and short bills (likely from western Arctic breeding populations, up to 11,000 km distant), with short-billed birds more likely to oversummer. We tested the prediction that oversummering birds have higher survival than migrants, and that the magnitude of this higher survival for oversummering birds is enough to compensate for their lost breeding season. Methods We used a Multi-State Mark-Recapture model based on 5 years of encounter data (n = 1963 marked birds, and 3229 resightings) obtained year-round at Paracas, Perú, to estimate seasonal (i.e. breeding and non-breeding) survivorship for migrant and oversummering birds. We calculated the magnitude of the oversummering survival advantage required to compensate, for both yearlings and adults, based on published measures of annual survival and reproductive success. Using bill length as a proxy for migration distance, we investigated whether migratory survival is distance-dependent. Results We estimate that 28% of yearlings and 19% of adults oversummer. Survival is higher for oversummering birds than for migrants, and the oversummering survival advantage is greater for adults (0.215) than for yearlings (0.140). The theoretical thresholds predicted by the size of the missed reproductive opportunity are 0.240 for adults and 0.134 for yearlings. Migratory survival decreases and the oversummering rate increases with migration distance, as assessed by culmen length. Conclusions Our results support the life history hypothesis that oversummering raises survival enough to compensate for the loss of a breeding opportunity. Greater migration distance lowers survival and increases the probability of oversummering.

show abstract

“…One of the key issues of concern at present is climate change, because of its relation to human survival, agriculture, food security, ecosystems, and social economy (Donnelly et al, 2017;Quispe-Ccalluari et al 2018;Christidis et al 2019;Huang et al 2019;Liu et al 2019;Wen et al 2019;Ahmed et al 2021). Climate change has visibly raised climate extremes, challenged human society and resulted in dramatic increases in international migration (Kaczan et al 2020;Sharafati et al 2020;Beine et al 2021), which can double the consequences of climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Climate change Over Sistan-and-Baluchestan Province of Iran using CMIP6 GCMs; In terms of Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature

Pegahfar

2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Information of probable change in a regional climate system can play an important role in the government’s policies. The present study investigates the climate variations over the Sistan-and-Baluchestan Province, the second biggest province of Iran with scarce direct observations, in basis of surface air temperature and precipitation. To this aim, three datasets of (I) in-situ data, (II) gridded data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU, in 1979-2020), and (III) outputs of historical runs (during 1979-2020) and simulations under the SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios (in 2021-2050) of twenty-seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were utilized. The climatic analysis was conducted in three steps of (I) evaluation of models' performance comparing with CRU data in 1979-2020, (II) rank the models based on Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) in Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique including eight metrics and (III) analysis of performance of the high-ranked models for 2021-2050. Results showed that CMIP6-GCMs generated lower satisfactory and consistency in simulating precipitation than temperature. The three models of CESM2-WACCM-FV2, MPI-ESM1-2-LR and IITM-ESM (MPI-ESM1-2-LR and UKESM1-0-LL and ACCESS-CM2) outperformed the others in simulating temperature (precipitation), while the MIROC6 (MIROC-ES2L) model performed the weakest. The MPI-ESM1-2-LR, UKESM1-0-LL and ACCESS-CM2 models achieved the highest rank for the both climate variables. Regarding the high-ranked models, analysis of the CMIP6-GCMs for 2021-2050 showed that the increase of 2.5-3.4 (2.2-3.1) K for the maximum temperature in SSP5-8.5 (SSP3-7.0) scenario is probable. Both scenarios showed an increasing (decreasing) trend for temperature (precipitation) in the future. Conclusively, the considered area will experience a remarkable increase in temperature and significant decrease in precipitation amount. It should be noted that the results from the global models will be exacerbated by any mistake in policy making.

show abstract

An index of coastal thermal effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the Peruvian Upwelling Ecosystem

Cited by 13 publications

References 43 publications

A delay‐differential model for representing small pelagic fish stock dynamics and its application for assessing alternative management strategies under environmental uncertainty

A delay‐differential model for representing small pelagic fish stock dynamics and its application for assessing alternative management strategies under environmental uncertainty

Oversummering juvenile and adult Semipalmated sandpipers in Perú gain enough survival to compensate for foregone breeding opportunity

Assessment of Climate change Over Sistan-and-Baluchestan Province of Iran using CMIP6 GCMs; In terms of Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About