Análise ex-ante do fundo constitucional de financiamento do Nordeste: uma aplicação de equilíbrio geral computável

Abstract

Brazil has in regional inequality a subject that historically receives a lot of attention from the researchers and policy makers. The most vulnerable regions in Brazil received initiatives that attempt to attenuate the problem of economic disparity. Among the instruments used, the Northeastern Constitutional Financing Fund was created by the Constitution with the aim of fight against intra and interregional inequalities in the Northeastern region. The present study proposes to evaluate the efficiency of the fund as an instrument of combatant policy of regional inequalities in the Northeast region applying a methodology of computable general equilibrium. The estimation of the scenario with no existence of the fund and its reallocation in government demand implies that income and investment decreases, together with higher concentration of production and inequality of GDP per capita.

Regional funding and regional inequalities in the Brazilian Northeast

“…It is important to highlight that the impact on the Brazilian economy would be 0.70%. This result is in line with the one presented by Nascimento and Haddad (), where they show a positive impact of FNE on Brazilian GDP, although the effects we find in our study are significantly higher. Using a static CGE model, Nascimento and Haddad () estimate that eliminating FNE would reduce Brazilian real GDP in 0.19%…”

“…This result is in line with the one presented by Nascimento and Haddad (2017), where they show a positive impact of FNE on Brazilian GDP, although the effects we find in our study are significantly higher. Using a static CGE model, Nascimento and Haddad (2017) estimate that eliminating FNE would reduce Brazilian real GDP in 0.19%. 13 We find that, in 2025, the Northeast region's GDP would have increased around 18.2 BRL billions at 2013 prices, and the Brazilian economy would be 37.3 BRL billion larger.…”

“…However, we only consider two years of FNE (2014 and 2015) and we do not assume any income change among households in the same federal unit, but only on regional GDP distribution. A similar result was found by Nascimento and Haddad (). According to these authors, FNE acts to deconcentrate production and keeps it less unequal throughout the country.…”

“…The B‐Maria model, used by Nascimento and Haddad (), is calibrated for 2011 and considers the FNE's investment in that year. Our model is calibrated for 2013 and considers the FNE in 2014 and 2015.…”

Avaliação Dos Impactos Do Fundo Constitucional De Financiamento Do Nordeste (Fne)

“…Os efeitos se propagam sobre outros setores da economia e incrementam a renda e o consumo das famílias. Nascimento (2017) O presente trabalho pretende avançar na avaliação dos fundos constitucionais ao propor a utilização do modelo de equilíbrio geral computável para mensurar seus impactos sobre a economia regional, tendo em vista que tal metodologia permite captar, conforme verificado por Pinto (2015), os efeitos alocativos e distributivos de uma política intervencionista, como é o caso do FNE.…”