Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network

Abstract

Wheat is one of the three basic cereals providing the necessary calorific intake for most of the world’s population. For this reason, its trade is critical to many countries in order to fulfil their internal demand and strategic stocks. In this paper, we use complex network analysis tools to study the international wheat trade network and its evolving characteristics for the period 2009–2013. To understand the vulnerability of each country’s dependence on the imports of this crop we have performed different analyses, simulating shocks of varying intensities for the main wheat producers, and observed the population affected by the production drop. As a result, we conclude that globally the network is slightly more resilient than four years previously, although at the same time some developing countries have slipped into a vulnerable situation. We have also analysed the effects of a global shock affecting all major producers, assessing its impact on every country. Some comments on the COVID-19 outbreak and the political decisions taken by governments following the pandemic declaration are included, observing that given their capital-intensive characteristics, no negative effects should currently be expected in the wheat market. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-020-01117-9.

Microstructural Characteristics of the Weighted and Directed International Crop Trade Networks

“…It indicates that most economies have a deficit in crop trade and need to import more than they export. A study on the wheat networks in 2009-2014 suggested that large exporters are in most cases also large importers, but the correlation between the in-strength and the out-strength is also very weak [3].…”

“…Getting rid of starvation and achieving food security are global key aims, as emphasized in the Sustainable Development Goals in the 2030 Agenda [2]. In various parts of the world, the local production of food cannot fulfill their internal demands [3]. International food trade has become a crucial element for feeding the world's population [4].…”

“…Studies on such topics usually focus on the aggregate network of food trade [11,12] or one kind of goods, such as seafood [13][14][15], meat [16], or agro-food [12,17,18]. Over the past two decades, a number of researchers have studied the structure and evolution of iCTNs, including those of maize [19], wheat [3,6,20], and soybean [21]. However, most international crop trade studies focused only on one important crop or combined several crops into an aggregate network.…”

Risk of Global External Cereals Supply under the Background of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Based on the Perspective of Trade Network

“…Puma and his colleagues applied this method to analyze the fragility of the global food system [ 14 ]. Similarly, some scholars have studied the impacts of different types of food flows on food security around the world [ 15 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 ]. The study by Ercsey-Ravasz et al pointed out that the flow of products in key hubs of the food network has a more prominent and effective impact on the entire network [ 26 ].…”

COVID-19 pandemic and agriculture in Romania: effects on agricultural systems, compliance with restrictions and relations with authorities

“…The COVID-19 pandemic and associated mitigation management has led to widespread doubts about the resilience and vulnerability of food systems in many parts of the world, with consequences for food security (see Ahmed et al, 2020 ). The current COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted multiple aspects of global supply chains in the agri-food sector (Gutiérrez-Moya et al, 2021 ). Torero ( 2020 ) noted that the pandemic has adversely affected access to agricultural inputs, agricultural technologies, and labor.…”