Wheat is one of the three basic cereals providing the necessary calorific intake for most of the world’s population. For this reason, its trade is critical to many countries in order to fulfil their internal demand and strategic stocks. In this paper, we use complex network analysis tools to study the international wheat trade network and its evolving characteristics for the period 2009–2013. To understand the vulnerability of each country’s dependence on the imports of this crop we have performed different analyses, simulating shocks of varying intensities for the main wheat producers, and observed the population affected by the production drop. As a result, we conclude that globally the network is slightly more resilient than four years previously, although at the same time some developing countries have slipped into a vulnerable situation. We have also analysed the effects of a global shock affecting all major producers, assessing its impact on every country. Some comments on the COVID-19 outbreak and the political decisions taken by governments following the pandemic declaration are included, observing that given their capital-intensive characteristics, no negative effects should currently be expected in the wheat market. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-020-01117-9.

This paper studies the relationship between wheat trading countries using both descriptive and statistical inference methods for complex networks. The global Wheat Trade Network (WTN) and its evolving topological characteristics is analysed for the periods 2009–2013 and 2014–2018, using the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data. The network characterisation measures in both periods are rather stable. There are some differences, however, in the magnitude of some measures (e.g., connectivity or disassortativity), and a higher degree of inequality in the distribution of the number of partners and the distribution of trade volume in the period 2014–2018. An Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) has been applied to identify significant determinants associated with the presence/absence of trade links between countries. The results indicate that wheat trade links are driven mainly by country openness, reciprocity (mutual importer-exporter relationship), whether the exporting country is US or Canada and the geographical location of importer and exporter. Other factors, such as the economic size of the importing country, if the importing country is US or Canada and the land surface of the exporting country also contribute less to capture interlinkages of WTN.

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