Analysis of A Coendemic Model of COVID-19 and Dengue Disease

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to spread aggressively worldwide, infecting more than 170 million people with confirmed cases, including more than 3 million deaths. This pandemic is increasingly exacerbating the burden on tropical and subtropical regions of the world due to the pre-existing dengue fever, which has become endemic for a longer period in the same region. Co-circulation dengue and COVID-19 cases have been found and confirmed in several countries. In this paper, a deterministic model for the coendemic of COVID-19 and dengue is proposed. The basic reproduction ratio is obtained, which is related to the four equilibria, disease-free, endemic-COVID-19, endemic-dengue, and coendemic equilibria. Stability analysis is done for the first three equilibria. Furthermore, a condition for coexistence equilibrium is obtained, which gives a condition for bifurcation analysis. Numerical simulations were carried out to obtain a stable limit-cycle resulting from two Hopf bifurcation points with dengue transmission rate and COVID-19 transmission rate as the bifurcation parameter, representing a stable periodic coexistence of dengue and COVID-19 transmission. We identify the period of limit cycle decreases after reaching the maximum value.

Expert System for the Timely Diagnosis of Infectious Diseases

“…The SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is the source of one of the most recent infectious diseases, COVID-19, was first discovered in Wuhan, China. Hundreds of thousands of people have died, and millions have been infected with respiratory infections because of the rapid global spread of this disease [3][4][5]. Without a proper diagnosis, it is difficult to distinguish the symptoms of COVID-19 from those of other respiratory diseases [2].…”

Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia

“…Furthermore, it can only be used for short-term prediction. Compartmental models have also been proposed in several papers, such as [3] and [4]. Both papers proposed models with at least 9 compartments with numerous parameters.…”