Analysis of energy security and sustainability in future low carbon scenarios for Brazil

Abstract

This study estimated a series of indicators to assess the energy security of supply and global and local environmental impacts under different mitigation scenarios through 2050 in Brazil, designed with the integrated optimization energy system model MESSAGE‐BRAZIL. The assessment of interactions between environmental impacts and energy security dimensions was complemented through the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. Overall results imply energy security establishes more synergies than trade‐offs in increasingly stringent mitigation scenarios, especially patent within the sustainability dimension, which increases energy security and provides additional benefits regarding climate change mitigation and air pollution emissions. It is still necessary to extend analysis to other energy sectors in addition to the power supply sector and to promote a better understanding of repercussions of energy scenario expansion in energy security.

Overlooked impacts of electricity expansion optimisation modelling: The life cycle side of the story

“…The technological foresight has been conducted from a baseline year (2010) to a 2050 horizon. This is consistent with previous studies about Brazil's energy sector modelling, for instance Nogueira et al [29], Lucena et al [23], and Lima et al [21]. Also, this analysis relies on techno-economic forecasts of the EIA Energy Technology Perspectives report [15] and economic parameters of the National Energy Agency Energy forecast [10], both developed until a 2050 timeline.…”

“…Power supply portfolio scenarios for Brazil in a 2050 horizon have been developed in the Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact tailored to a Brazilian context (MESSAGE-Brazil), as described in Borba et al [2], Lucena et al [22], Malagueta et al [25], Nogueira et al [29] and Lima et al [21]. The MESSAGE-Brazil model is an integrated energy system model that estimates the least-cost expansion strategy for the Brazilian energy supply system to meet a certain exogenous demand, under specified constrains, namely energy resource availability, industrial installation capacity of each technology, investment costs, and political, social and environmental constraints.…”

Interactions between global climate change strategies and local air pollution: lessons learnt from the expansion of the power sector in Brazil

“…3 Results and discussion 3.1 GHG emissions Figure 3 illustrates the GHG emissions from power generation scenarios, showing that in the absence of climate policies, power sector GHG emissions would increase fourfold, rising from (Lima et al 2015;Portugal-Pereira et al 2016). Although Brazil does not have an updated governmental Energy Strategy up to 2050, under the government's 10-year Strategic Energy Plan there is indication for 10.5 GW expansion of NG and coal thermal power plant capacity (EPE 2015).…”

Energy security and renewable energy deployment in the EU: Liaisons Dangereuses or Virtuous Circle?

“…The role of RES within the relationship between energy security and climate change policies has recently been the subject of heated discussion [1,[15][16][17][18][19][20][21]. Currently, there is no agreement on whether a complementarity or a trade-off exists between these two dimensions [22][23][24][25][26]. In order to conceptualize this relationship some theoretical frameworks have been constructed.…”