Analysis of the Model on the Effect of Seasonal Factors on Malaria Transmission Dynamics

Abstract

Malaria is one of the world’s most prevalent epidemics. Current control and eradication efforts are being frustrated by rapid changes in climatic factors such as temperature and rainfall. This study is aimed at assessing the impact of temperature and rainfall abundance on the intensity of malaria transmission. A human host-mosquito vector deterministic model which incorporates temperature and rainfall dependent parameters is formulated. The model is analysed for steady states and their stability. The basic reproduction number is obtained using the next-generation method. It was established that the mosquito population depends on a threshold value θ , defined as the number of mosquitoes produced by a female Anopheles mosquito throughout its lifetime, which is governed by temperature and rainfall. The conditions for the stability of the equilibrium points are investigated, and it is shown that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction number exceeds unity. Numerical simulations show that both temperature and rainfall affect the transmission dynamics of malaria; however, temperature has more influence.

Optimal control analysis of hepatocytic-erythrocytic dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria

“…Malaria is a major leading public health problem, especially in the African continent ( Aguilar & Gutierrez, 2020 ; Yiga, Nampala, & Tumwiine, 2020 ). In 2019, about 229 million cases and 409 000 deaths due to malaria infections were reported globally ( Al-Awadhi, Ahmad, & Iqbal, 2021 ; WHO, 2020 ).…”

Mathematical Analysis of Seasonal Malaria Transmission in Swampy and Deltaic Regions.

“…The model analysis shows temperature increase greatly affects the latent period, which drastically reduce the health care efficiency. Most existing models of malaria seasonality [15,16,18,19,20] use parameters of rainfall, temperature, and/or vegetation indices to describe suitable transmission patterns. However, the work of [17] proposes a statistical modelling framework that characterises seasonal patterns derived directly from monthly health facility data across various Islands in Madagascar.…”

Modeling the Inflow of Exposed and Infected Migrants on the Dynamics of Malaria

“…Malaria is currently a life-threatening vector borne disease which is endemic in most of the developing and underdeveloped countries associated with challenging health care systems. More particularly, malaria is highly endemic in sub-Saharan Africa characterized with poor hygienic conditions which serve as suitable breeding site for malaria vectors [1]. Plasmodium parasites and female Anopheles mosquitoes are respectively the causal agent and transmitting vectors of malaria.…”

“…Among the most vulnerable groups to malaria are expectant mothers and infants under five years of age [1][2][3]. Common symptoms of malaria include: fever, chills, headache, pain, anaemia and vomiting [1,4].…”

“…Among the most vulnerable groups to malaria are expectant mothers and infants under five years of age [1][2][3]. Common symptoms of malaria include: fever, chills, headache, pain, anaemia and vomiting [1,4]. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that in 2022 alone, there were two hundred and forty nine million malaria cases recorded globally.…”