Anatomy of digital contact tracing: role of age, transmission setting, adoption and case detection

López, Jesús A. Moreno; Arregui-Garcĺa, Beatriz; Bentkowski, Piotr; Bioglio, Livio; Pinotti, Francesco; Boëlle, Pierre‐Yves; Barrat, Alain; Colizza, Vittoria; Poletto, Chiara

doi:10.1101/2020.07.22.20158352

Cited by 20 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 54 publications

(117 reference statements)

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“…These individuals will not be detected and will become infectious after the campaign, again fuelling the epidemic. This problem can be partly mitigated by extending isolation measures to include household contacts, as in Slovakia, and performing robust contact tracing [14]. For a given number of tests, impact might be higher if the tests target areas, populations or places of higher incidence.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of mass testing during an epidemic rebound of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study using the example of France

et al. 2021

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We used a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of mass testing in the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Under optimistic assumptions, one round of mass testing may reduce daily infections by up to 20–30%. Consequently, very frequent testing would be required to control a quickly growing epidemic if other control measures were to be relaxed. Mass testing is most relevant when epidemic growth remains limited through a combination of interventions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of mass testing during an epidemic rebound of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study using the example of France

et al. 2021

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“…However, a deeper reading of the study reveals that the apps are already efficient at vastly lower levels of adoption. Given the non-linear relationship between adoption and mitigation of the disease, and the high heterogeneity of social networks, recent studies 4,6 indeed show that levels of adoption above 20% already have an epidemiological impact in the containment strategy and thus justify their nationwide deployment.…”

Section: Key Performance Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…igital contact tracing (DCT) 1 , i.e. using mobile phone apps to make contact tracing and notification between individuals, has recently been proposed to be a plausible complement of manual contact tracing [2][3][4][5][6] within the Test, Trace and Isolate (TTI) containment strategy in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic [7][8][9] . While several countries, initially including Singapore or South Korea and more recently Switzerland, Italy, France or Germany to cite a few 10 have started to deploy different implementations of such technology, to date there is however a lack of empirical evidence of the effectiveness of such DCT 11,12 .…”

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confidence: 99%

A population-based controlled experiment assessing the epidemiological impact of digital contact tracing

Graña²,

et al. 2021

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While Digital contact tracing (DCT) has been argued to be a valuable complement to manual tracing in the containment of COVID-19, no empirical evidence of its effectiveness is available to date. Here, we report the results of a 4-week population-based controlled experiment that took place in La Gomera (Canary Islands, Spain) between June and July 2020, where we assessed the epidemiological impact of the Spanish DCT app Radar Covid. After a substantial communication campaign, we estimate that at least 33% of the population adopted the technology and further showed relatively high adherence and compliance as well as a quick turnaround time. The app detects about 6.3 close-contacts per primary simulated infection, a significant percentage being contacts with strangers, although the spontaneous follow-up rate of these notified cases is low. Overall, these results provide experimental evidence of the potential usefulness of DCT during an epidemic outbreak in a real population.

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“…Note that this model focus on voluntary self-imposed quarantines only. Such strategy is different from policy-driven quarantines, where the government can apply contact tracing and other methods to enforce the isolation of specific individuals that were shown to be infected, or potentially infectious [9] , [10] , [11] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An epidemiological model with voluntary quarantine strategies governed by evolutionary game dynamics

Amaral

Oliveira

Javarone

2021

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals

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During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to reduce simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is very relevant to the risk of a healthcare system collapse. Although these strategies can be recommended, or even imposed, their actual implementation may depend on the population perception of the risks associated with a potential infection. The current COVID-19 crisis, for instance, is showing that some individuals are much more prone than others to remain isolated. To better understand these dynamics, we propose an epidemiological SIR model that uses evolutionary game theory for combining in a single process social strategies, individual risk perception, and viral spreading. In particular, we consider a disease spreading through a population, whose agents can choose between self-isolation and a lifestyle careless of any epidemic risk. The strategy adoption is individual and depends on the perceived disease risk compared to the quarantine cost. The game payoff governs the strategy adoption, while the epidemic process governs the agent’s health state. At the same time, the infection rate depends on the agent’s strategy while the perceived disease risk depends on the fraction of infected agents. Our results show recurrent infection waves, which are usually seen in previous historic epidemic scenarios with voluntary quarantine. In particular, such waves re-occur as the population reduces disease awareness. Notably, the risk perception is found to be fundamental for controlling the magnitude of the infection peak, while the final infection size is mainly dictated by the infection rates. Low awareness leads to a single and strong infection peak, while a greater disease risk leads to shorter, although more frequent, peaks. The proposed model spontaneously captures relevant aspects of a pandemic event, highlighting the fundamental role of social strategies.

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Anatomy of digital contact tracing: role of age, transmission setting, adoption and case detection

Cited by 20 publications

References 54 publications

Impact of mass testing during an epidemic rebound of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study using the example of France

Impact of mass testing during an epidemic rebound of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study using the example of France

A population-based controlled experiment assessing the epidemiological impact of digital contact tracing

An epidemiological model with voluntary quarantine strategies governed by evolutionary game dynamics

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