Anthrax in the Amhara regional state of Ethiopia; spatiotemporal analysis and environmental suitability modeling with an ensemble approach

Bihon, Amare; Tibebu, Abebe

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2020.105155

Cited by 20 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…More recently, Assefa et al. mapped the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ethiopia with an ensemble ecological niche model (Assefa et al., 2020). To date, three articles have modelled the broad‐scale distribution of anthrax globally and at higher northern latitudes (Carlson et al., 2019; Stella et al., 2021; Walsh et al., 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the ecological niche of naturally occurring anthrax at global and circumpolar extents using an ensemble modelling framework

Deka

Vieira

Bower

2022

Transbounding Emerging Dis

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Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, is a spore‐forming bacterium that primarily affects herbivorous livestock, wildlife and humans exposed to direct contact with infected animal carcasses or products. To date, there are a limited number of studies that have delineated the potential global distribution of anthrax, despite the importance of the disease from both an economic and public health standpoint. This study compiled occurrence data (n = 874) of confirmed human and animal cases from 1954 to 2021 in 94 countries. Using an ensemble ecological niche model framework, we developed updated maps of the global predicted ecological suitability of anthrax to measure relative risk at multiple scales of analysis, including a model for circumpolar regions. Additionally, we produced maps quantifying the disease transmission risk associated with anthrax to cattle, sheep and goat populations. Environmental suitability for B. anthracis globally is concentred throughout Eurasia, sub‐Saharan Africa, the Americas, Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania. Suitable environments for B. anthracis at the circumpolar scale extend above the Arctic Circle into portions of Russia, Canada, Alaska and northern Scandinavia. Environmental factors driving B. anthracis suitability globally include vegetation, land surface temperature, soil characteristics, primary climate conditions and topography. At the circumpolar scale, suitability is influenced by soil factors, topography and the derived climate characteristics. The greatest risk to livestock is concentrated within the Indian subcontinent, Australia, Anatolia, the Caucasus region, Central Asia, the European Union, Argentina, Uruguay, China, the United States, Canada and East Africa. This study expands on previous work by providing enhanced knowledge of the potential spatial distribution of anthrax in the Southern Hemisphere, sub‐Saharan Africa, Asia and circumpolar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. We conclude that these updated maps will provide pertinent information to guide disease control programs, inform policymakers and raise awareness at the global level to lessen morbidity and mortality among animals and humans located in environmentally suitable areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the ecological niche of naturally occurring anthrax at global and circumpolar extents using an ensemble modelling framework

Deka

Vieira

Bower

2022

Transbounding Emerging Dis

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“…The global distribution of anthrax is largely determined by the presence of soils that support spore survival, namely those that are rich in organic matter and calcium and with pH>6 [ 4 ]. Landscape suitability is further delineated by factors such as livestock density, wild ungulate species richness, forest loss, rainfall and temperature [ 5 – 8 ]. Anthrax seasons are typically characterized by hot-dry weather, with outbreaks often triggered by weather extremes such as heavy rain following a period of prolonged drought [ 4 , 9 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

First PCR Confirmed anthrax outbreaks in Ethiopia—Amhara region, 2018–2019

et al. 2022

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Background Anthrax is a disease that affects humans and animals. In Ethiopia, anthrax is a reportable disease and assumed to be endemic, although laboratory confirmation has not been routinely performed until recently. We describe the findings from the investigation of two outbreaks in Amhara region. Methods Following reports of suspected outbreaks in Wag Hamra zone (Outbreak 1) and South Gondar zone (Outbreak 2), multi-sectoral teams involving both animal and public health officials were deployed to investigate and establish control programs. A suspect case was defined as: sudden death with rapid bloating or bleeding from orifice(s) with unclotted blood (animals); and signs compatible with cutaneous, ingestion, or inhalation anthrax ≤7 days after exposure to a suspect animal (humans). Suspect human cases were interviewed using a standard questionnaire. Samples were collected from humans with suspected anthrax (Outbreak 1 and Outbreak 2) as well as dried meat of suspect animal cases (Outbreak 2). A case was confirmed if a positive test was returned using real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Results In Outbreak 1, a total of 49 cows died due to suspected anthrax and 22 humans developed symptoms consistent with cutaneous anthrax (40% attack rate), two of whom died due to suspected ingestion anthrax. Three people were confirmed to have anthrax by qPCR. In Outbreak 2, anthrax was suspected to have caused the deaths of two livestock animals and one human. Subsequent investigation revealed 18 suspected cases of cutaneous anthrax in humans (27% attack rate). None of the 12 human samples collected tested positive, however, a swab taken from the dried meat of one animal case (goat) was positive by qPCR. Conclusion We report the first qPCR-confirmed outbreaks of anthrax in Ethiopia. Both outbreaks were controlled through active case finding, carcass management, ring vaccination of livestock, training of health professionals and outreach with livestock owners. Human and animal health authorities should work together using a One Health approach to improve case reporting and vaccine coverage.

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“…Anthrax occurs nearly worldwide, except Antarctica, including in: some Mediterranean countries; parts of Canada and the United States of America (USA); some countries of central and South America, central Asia, western China, and several sub-Saharan African countries [1,3]. Several eastern African countries have reported anthrax and estimated areas at risk [4][5][6]. In Kenya, anthrax is endemic with its burden felt in livestock production, public health, and wildlife conservation, resulting in its ranking as the highest priority zoonosis in the country [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya

Otieno

Gachohi

Gikuma-Njuru

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011–2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017–2018), and active surveillance (2019–2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km2, RCP 4.5, 40,012 km2, and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km2. The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.

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Anthrax in the Amhara regional state of Ethiopia; spatiotemporal analysis and environmental suitability modeling with an ensemble approach

Cited by 20 publications

References 19 publications

Modelling the ecological niche of naturally occurring anthrax at global and circumpolar extents using an ensemble modelling framework

Modelling the ecological niche of naturally occurring anthrax at global and circumpolar extents using an ensemble modelling framework

First PCR Confirmed anthrax outbreaks in Ethiopia—Amhara region, 2018–2019

Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya

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