Focusing on the problem of strip shape quality control in the finishing process of hot rolling, a shape model based on metal flow and stress release with the application of varying contact rolling parameters is introduced. Combined with digital twin technology, the digital twin framework of the shape model is proposed, which realizes the deep integration between physical time–space and virtual time–space. With the utilization of the historical data, the parameters are optimized iteratively to complete the digital twin of the shape model. According to the schedule, the raw material information is taken as the input to obtain the simulation of the strip shape, which shows a variety of export shape conditions. The prediction absolute error of the crown and flatness are less than 5 μm and 5 I-unit, respectively. The results prove that the proposed shape simulation model with strong prediction performance can be effectively applied to hot rolling production. In addition, the proposed model provides operators with a reference for the parameter settings for actual production and promotes the intelligent application of a shape control strategy.