Application of open tools and datasets to probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage

Abstract

Summary The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well‐known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.

Seismic Vulnerability Assessment Methodologies for Roadway Assets and Networks: A State-of-the-Art Review

“…Costa et al [154] developed a probabilistic approach to study the impact of earthquakes on road traffic by studying the correlation between the physical damage of road assets and traffic flow on road networks in Messina, Italy. A probabilistic approach was employed to account for the spatial variation of earthquake-induced damages.…”

“…Additionally, different open-source simulation tools for traffic analysis are being used. For instance, Costa et al [154] used the Simulation of Urban Mobility (SUMO) tool to conduct the traffic simulations; in this tool different specifications can be inserted to define the network, such as geometric specifications, speed limits, and any junctions or traffic lights. Nevertheless, Van noort et al [177] developed an integrated traffic simulation platform (MOBYSIM) that takes into account the interaction between vehicles and the surrounding environment, which can help in determining the road network performance for three different aspects: efficiency, the environment, and safety.…”

Improvement of Evacuation Modeling by Considering Road Blockade in the Case of an Earthquake: A Case Study of Daitoku School District, Kanazawa City, Japan

“…Several studies have shown that road blockades, which are caused by damaged buildings, become obstacles for emergency activities, such as evacuation and rescue, in urban areas [7,[14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. Goncalo et al [21] pointed out that debris from damaged buildings are major inaccessibility sources in urban areas, while they accounted for 91% of road blockades in the 1995 Kobe earthquake [15].…”

“…Goncalo et al [21] pointed out that debris from damaged buildings are major inaccessibility sources in urban areas, while they accounted for 91% of road blockades in the 1995 Kobe earthquake [15]. Therefore, several methods were developed for identifying road blockades, with most considering the length of debris and road width as important factors [7,[14][15][16][17][18][19].…”

Influence of a new‐bored neighbouring cavity on the seismic response of an existing tunnel under incident P‐ and SV‐waves

“…Tunnels are important structures in transportation networks, and the occurrence of a seismic event may cause the loss of human lives and extensive damage to infrastructure, and by that, severe economic consequences, as well as a serious social impact on the affected region 1 . It could also severely hinder rescue actions and repair works after the earthquake directly due to the disintegration of the transportation network.…”