Approaches to predictive studies: Possibilities and challenges

Abstract

This article investigates methodological issues associated with predictive studies related to selection and access to Higher Education. These issues are discussed in the context of tests designed and administered by the Alternative Admissions Research Project (AARP) at the University of Cape Town. The aim of the project is to design tests that broaden access to talented students who are not easily identified through the High School Senior Certificate examination system. The tests attempt to provide a mechanism for selection based upon whether the writers have the potential to succeed in the University environment. The article comments on the difficulties and limitations of various approaches to predictive studies. The article argues that a methodology grounded in the survival analysis approach holds particular promise for predictive studies and that it can provide a useful insight into the complex processes of student persistence, retention and attrition rates. INDU IO

Researching assessment as social practice: Implications for research methodology

“…(Gadamer, 2003, p. 295). 7 Similar performance patterns are evident in other studies recently conducted at UCT (Cliff, Yeld, & Hanslo, 2003;Visser and Hanslo, 2005;Scott, Hendry, Jawitz, & Gibbon, 2005) and they are supported by preliminary patterns of 'racially' differentiated throughput performance across the higher education system (Scott et al, 2005). policy and the decreased performance.…”

Academic success, language and the four year degree: A case study of a 2007 cohort

“…For the ESL students the weakening correlation between their incoming January PTEEP scores, their mid-year results and their final results seems shows the Geography extended degree module helped the very students it is designed to. Visser andHanslo (2005, 1162) found that 'academic development programmes and course interventions may have impacted positively on the performance of weak incoming students and this serves to further depress the correlation co-efficient when correlating testing instrument scores with course performance scores', thus, a weak correlation can be taken as proof of academic intervention. In terms of English language proficiency, the South African Senior School Higher Grade…”

“…Initially, there was no nationally accepted valid and reliable test which assessed academic potential, making admissions and placement management very difficult (Visser and Hanslo 2005;Van der Merwe and De Beer 2006). Thus, a placement test, commonly known as the PTEEP test, was developed by the Alternative Admissions Research Project (AARP) as an 'assessment tool which endeavours to widen access into the University of Cape Town [by identifying] educationally talented students with the potential to succeed' (Visser andHanslo 2005, 1161). The PTEEP was extensively tested (for more than a decade) and was recognised by UCT as a valid predictor of academic success.…”

“…When looking at number of modules failed versus years of enrolment ( Figure 11) it is clear that failure leads to a) dropout and/or academic exclusions, and b) failure results in students taking longer to graduate. Apart from the likely negative psychological effect such failure may have on individual students, their families bear the financial costs associated with universities fees and the like (Visser and Hanslo 2005). Although some students repeat courses and attain success, it may be that such high rates of failure represent systemic inefficiencies.…”

Measuring the success of an academic development programme: A statistical analysis

“…What society expects and government pays for, in South Africa at least, are graduates (Visser and Hanslo 2005).…”