This article investigates methodological issues associated with predictive studies related to selection and access to Higher Education. These issues are discussed in the context of tests designed and administered by the Alternative Admissions Research Project (AARP) at the University of Cape Town. The aim of the project is to design tests that broaden access to talented students who are not easily identified through the High School Senior Certificate examination system. The tests attempt to provide a mechanism for selection based upon whether the writers have the potential to succeed in the University environment. The article comments on the difficulties and limitations of various approaches to predictive studies. The article argues that a methodology grounded in the survival analysis approach holds particular promise for predictive studies and that it can provide a useful insight into the complex processes of student persistence, retention and attrition rates.
INDU IO
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.