Arctic decadal and interdecadal variability

Polyakov, Igor V.; Johnson, Mark A.

doi:10.1029/2000gl011909

Cited by 195 publications

(144 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Using different models or model set-ups, Karcher et al (2005), Koeberle and Gerdes (2007) and Hakkinen and Proshutinsky (2004) all agree in finding a decrease of $5000 km 3 in the freshwater content of the Arctic between the 1980s and the late 1990s followed by an increase of similar magnitude until the early 2000s. According to the analysis by Karcher et al (2005), the peak of the liquid release in the mid to late 1990s was associated with a shift of the Arctic upper ocean flow through more-cyclonic atmospheric conditions in the period 1989-1995(Polyakov and Johnson, 2000, when the NAO/AO was at an extreme high-index state. The resulting changes in the spreading pathways of river runoff, as demonstrated by the NPS model and an increased inflow of Atlantic water led to an observed and simulated restructuring of the eastern Eurasian and Makarov basins ('retreat of the cold halocline': Steele and Boyd, 1998;Karcher et al, 2005).…”

Section: A U T H O R ' S P E R S O N a L C O P Ymentioning

confidence: 99%

Current estimates of freshwater flux through Arctic and subarctic seas

Dickson

Rudels²,

Dye

et al. 2007

Progress in Oceanography

247

227

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Section: A U T H O R ' S P E R S O N a L C O P Ymentioning

confidence: 99%

Current estimates of freshwater flux through Arctic and subarctic seas

Dickson

Rudels²,

Dye

et al. 2007

Progress in Oceanography

247

227

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“…(Table 4). Most authors give ice volume; Chapman et al [1994] give mass, and Polyakov and Johnson [2000] show thickness. Here the given annual mean volumes are converted to annual mean thickness, dividing by the reported annual mean extent or our best estimate of it for the particular domain; where the annually varying extent is given, first seasonally varying thickness and then its annual means are computed.…”

Section: Thickness In Other Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The arctic ice thickness anomaly of the 1990s: A consistent view from observations and models

2003

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[1] Observations of sea-ice draft from submarine cruises in much of the Arctic Ocean show that the ice cover was unusually thin in the mid-1990s. Here we limit our examination to digitally recorded draft data from eight cruises spanning the years 1987 to 1997 and find a decrease of about 1 m over the 11-year span. Comparisons of our modeled draft with observed draft show good agreement in the temporal change. Comparing average draft over entire cruises, the RMS discrepancy between modeled and observed draft is 0.3 m and the correlation is 0.98. Agreement in the spatial patterns of draft is somewhat lower; the RMS discrepancy of 50-km averages of draft is 0.7 m and the correlation is 0.73. We review reports of interannual variations of ice thickness or volume from other model studies. All models agree that thickness decreased by between 0.6 and 0.9 m from 1987 to 1996. Our model shows a modest recovery in thickness from 1996 to 1999. For the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, models tend to disagree on the size and to a lesser extent the timing or phase of interannual variations.

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“…The interannual variability depicted by Proshutinsky and Johnson (1997) is documented using an index computed from modelled sea-ice drift and the pressure value analysed at the North Pole. Walsh et al (1996) and Polyakov and Johnson (2000) additionally employ a vorticity index for the central Arctic Ocean computed from the sea-level pressure analysed. This type of variability is referred to in the literature as the Arctic Ocean oscillation (AOO).…”

Section: Interannual Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The annual cycle and interannual variability of atmospheric pressure in the vicinity of the North Pole

Cullather

Lynch

2003

Intl Journal of Climatology

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A comparison of National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis six-hourly sea-level pressure data with former Soviet drifting station observations over the central Arctic Basin reveals high monthly correlations throughout the period 1950-91, but also a preferred winter season negative bias of about 1.4 hPa. Using the reanalysis, supplemented by Arctic Ocean Buoy Program fields and in situ observations, a generalized depiction of the annual cycle of pressure fields over the Arctic may be constructed. Above the Canada Basin-Laptev Sea side of the Arctic, the annual cycle of surface pressure is dominated by the first harmonic, which has an amplitude of about 5 hPa and maximum pressure occurring in March. Along the periphery of northern Greenland and extending to the North Pole, a weak semiannual cycle is found in surface pressure with maxima in May and November. The presence of the semiannual variation over time is highly variable.Dynamically, this progression of the annual cycle may be attributed to the transfer of atmospheric mass from Eurasia and into the Canadian Archipelago in spring and the reverse condition in autumn. Over the central Arctic Basin, springtime pressure increases result from an enhanced poleward mass transport from Eurasia. An increase of equatorward transport over the Canadian Archipelago in May and June results in central Arctic pressure decreases into summer. A less distinct temporal separation between the poleward Canadian transport and the equatorward Eurasian transport results in the weaker second pressure maximum in autumn.On interannual time-scales, atmospheric mass over the central Arctic is exchanged with the storm track centres of action in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. In particular, the large decrease in central Arctic Basin sea-level pressure during the late 1980s is due to a large transfer of atmospheric mass into the North Pacific.

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Arctic decadal and interdecadal variability

Cited by 195 publications

References 11 publications

Current estimates of freshwater flux through Arctic and subarctic seas

Current estimates of freshwater flux through Arctic and subarctic seas

The arctic ice thickness anomaly of the 1990s: A consistent view from observations and models

The annual cycle and interannual variability of atmospheric pressure in the vicinity of the North Pole

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