Are Naturalized Voters Driving the California Latino Electorate? Measuring the Effect of IRCA Citizens on Latino Voting^*

Abstract

Objectives. The 1990s witnessed the growth and maturation of the Latino electorate in California and many scholars have posited as to the reasons. One argument is that naturalizations by way of the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) drove the increases in Latino participation. In this article we investigate the extent to which this is the case. Methods. Using unpublished INS data, we offer the first empirical test of the IRCA theory by examining Latino IRCA petitions by zipcode to determine whether or not IRCA legalizations and subsequent naturalizations were the force behind increased Latino turnout, and the overall growth of the Latino vote. We merge IRCA data with Registrar of Voter data to examine real growth in the Latino vote at the zipcode level from 1996–2000 in southern California. Results. Although Latino voting grew substantially, we find that IRCA naturalizations did not spur the increases in Latino voting in the 1990s as some have expected. Instead, demographic and mobilization variables explain why the Latino vote grew between 1996 and 2000. Conclusions. As Congress debates new proposals to “legalize” the millions of undocumented immigrants living and working in this country, many will inevitably ask what impact their citizenship will have on the electorate. This study sheds some light on the relationship between amnesty programs, citizenship, and voting among Latinos.

The Impact of Race and Ethnicity, Immigration and Political Context on Participation in American Electoral Politics

“…But there is also contradictory evidence (Lien 2004). In fact it has been suggested that those who choose to become citizens and therefore are eligible to register and vote are an especially motivated, self-selected subset of immigrants who are therefore more likely than natives to participate in the political process (Segal 2002, Barreto et al 2005, Pantoja et al 2001, Cassel 2002, Garcia and Arce 1988). Ramakrishnan and Espenshade show that generational differences in participation vary by racial group (Ramakrishnan and Espenshade 2001; Ramakrishnan 2005; Lien 2004).…”

Immigration Politics and Partisan Realignment: California, Texas, and the 1994 Election

“…Besides becoming more Democratic, during the 1990s, California's Hispanic electorate also grew considerably. Intriguingly, Barreto, Ramírez, and Woods (2005) find that Latinos who naturalized under the amnesty provision of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 were not critical in this electoral expansion. Rather, there was a surge of Latino registrants from 1994 to 1996, which ended up having a significant effect on later Latino turnout.…”

Segmented Mobilization

“…Moreover, Barreto, Ramírez, and Woods (2005) find that the heightened political context explains most of the increase in voting among naturalized voters since 1996 beyond what would be expected with normal influx of Latino immigrants eligible for naturalization. 5 Starting with a 1996 postelection survey of Latinos in California, Ramírez (2002) supplemented the survey with a longitudinal validated measure of participation to determine whether mobilization by political context is temporal in nature or long lasting.…”