Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

Lavergne, Sébastien; Evans, Margaret E. K.; Burfield, Ian J.; Jiguet, Frédéric; Thuiller, Wilfried

doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0091

Cited by 81 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…If paleo-niche data are also available, then it also becomes possible to assess community climate mismatches and volumes at an arbitrary time in the past. Such data can be obtained through several routes: if occurrence data are also available at multiple times, they can be combined with paleoclimate layers; alternatively climate niches can be reconstructed directly using phylogenetic approaches (Lavergne et al 2013).…”

Section: Future Opportunitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking environmental filtering and disequilibrium to biogeography with a community climate framework

Blonder

Bravo

Borregaard

et al. 2015

Ecology

154

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Abstract. We present a framework to measure the strength of environmental filtering and disequilibrium of the species composition of a local community across time, relative to past, current, and future climates. We demonstrate the framework by measuring the impact of climate change on New World forests, integrating data for climate niches of more than 14 000 species, community composition of 471 New World forest plots, and observed climate across the most recent glacial-interglacial interval. We show that a majority of communities have species compositions that are strongly filtered and are more in equilibrium with current climate than random samples from the regional pool. Variation in the level of current community disequilibrium can be predicted from Last Glacial Maximum climate and will increase with near-future climate change.

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Section: Future Opportunitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking environmental filtering and disequilibrium to biogeography with a community climate framework

Blonder

Bravo

Borregaard

et al. 2015

Ecology

154

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“…Moreover, closely related species can be in various stages of divergence rather than in complete isolation (Via 2009;Wolf et al 2010). Disentangling the effects of IBE and IBD on the divergence of closely related taxa is crucial to understanding the process of speciation (Svensson 2012;Shafer and Wolf 2013;Wang et al 2013;Sexton et al 2014) and for conserving species/lineages as biodiversity becomes increasingly threatened by global climate change (Hoffmann and Sgrò 2011;Alberto et al 2013;D'Aman et al 2013;Lavergne et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disentangling the effects of isolation-by-distance and isolation-by-environment on genetic differentiation among Rhododendron lineages in the subgenus Tsutsusi

Huang

Chen

Chang

et al. 2016

Tree Genetics & Genomes

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Ecological speciation has long been noted as a central topic in the field of evolutionary biology, and investigation into the relative importance of ecological and geographical factors is becoming increasingly emphasized. We surveyed genetic variation of 277 samples from 25 populations of nine Rhododendron species within Tsutsusi subgenus in Taiwan using simple sequence repeats of expressed sequence tags. Bayesian clustering revealed four genetic lineages: (1) the Rhododendron simsii, Rhododendron kanehirai, and Rhododendron nakaharae lineage (lineage 1); (2) the R h o d o d e n d ro n l o n g i p e r u l a t u m , R h o d o d e n d ro n breviperulatum, and Rhododendron noriakianum lineage (lineage 2); (3) the Rhododendron rubropilosum lineage (lineage 3); and (4) the Rhododendron oldhamii lineage (lineage 4).Asymmetric introgressions were found from lineage 3 into lineages 1 and 2 (introgressed lineages). Genetic admixture of non-R. oldhamii species was also revealed by a neighborjoining tree. Variation partitioning showed that environment explained much larger portions of genetic variation than geography between non-introgressed lineages (i.e., between R. oldhamii and other lineages). However, the Mantel and partial Mantel tests and the multiple matrix regression with randomization found that isolation-by-distance played a more important role than isolation-by-environment (IBE) in contributing to genetic variation in most between lineage comparisons. Nevertheless, strong IBE was found when compared between non-introgressed lineages of R. oldhamii and R. rubropilosum, suggesting post-speciation ecological divergence. Several environmental variables, including annual mean temperature, aspect, isothermality, seasonal precipitation, slope, and soil pH, could be important ecological drivers involved in reproductive isolation between R. oldhamii and non-R. oldhamii species within the Tsutsusi subgenus.

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“…If genuine, these data pinpoint species that have expanded poleward in the face of severe cooling, and so would be interesting targets for comparative analysis of physiological evolution. Such data would also represent direct evidence for interspecific differences in rates of climate niche evolution, hypothesized predictors of responses to future global change (54). In any case, assuming that these species actually ranged to our focal area in the Pliocene, but were not sampled or recognized (unlikely given the intensity and quality of the work there), would only strengthen the differential extinction pattern in Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Convergence, divergence, and parallelism in marine biodiversity trends: Integrating present-day and fossil data

Huang

Roy

Valentine

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Paleontological data provide essential insights into the processes shaping the spatial distribution of present-day biodiversity. Here, we combine biogeographic data with the fossil record to investigate the roles of parallelism (similar diversities reached via changes from similar starting points), convergence (similar diversities reached from different starting points), and divergence in shaping the present-day latitudinal diversity gradients of marine bivalves along the two North American coasts. Although both faunas show the expected overall poleward decline in species richness, the trends differ between the coasts, and the discrepancies are not explained simply by present-day temperature differences. Instead, the fossil record indicates that both coasts have declined in overall diversity over the past 3 My, but the western Atlantic fauna suffered more severe Pliocene−Pleistocene extinction than did the eastern Pacific. Tropical western Atlantic diversity remains lower than the eastern Pacific, but warm temperate western Atlantic diversity recovered to exceed that of the temperate eastern Pacific, either through immigration or in situ origination. At the clade level, bivalve families shared by the two coasts followed a variety of paths toward today's diversities. The drivers of these lineage-level differences remain unclear, but species with broad geographic ranges during the Pliocene were more likely than geographically restricted species to persist in the temperate zone, suggesting that past differences in geographic range sizes among clades may underlie between-coast contrasts. More detailed comparative work on regional extinction intensities and selectivities, and subsequent recoveries (by in situ speciation or immigration), is needed to better understand present-day diversity patterns and model future changes.B iodiversity is spatially structured at many scales. Biogeographic realms and provinces, the partitioning of species among environments within biogeographic units, and genetic population structure within species are all manifestations of the ecological and evolutionary processes that generate and maintain diversity in terrestrial and marine systems. For most terrestrial and marine organisms, the first-order global diversity pattern is the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG): the increase in the number of species and higher taxa from the poles to the tropics (1). This gradient, as seen today, has been shaped by a combination of origination, extinction, and past geographic shifts of taxa; all of these variables might differ among clades, functional groups, and land masses or ocean basins (2-7), even when the overall LDG is similar. Thus, a mechanistic understanding of the present-day LDG in general, and along specific equator−pole transects, for distinctive regional faunas, and for individual clades, cannot be divorced from its history.The need for historical data is underscored by the differences and similarities among related clades that broadly conform to the LDG. As in many evolutionary question...

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Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

Cited by 81 publications

References 65 publications

Linking environmental filtering and disequilibrium to biogeography with a community climate framework

Linking environmental filtering and disequilibrium to biogeography with a community climate framework

Disentangling the effects of isolation-by-distance and isolation-by-environment on genetic differentiation among Rhododendron lineages in the subgenus Tsutsusi

Convergence, divergence, and parallelism in marine biodiversity trends: Integrating present-day and fossil data

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