Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy

Marois, Guillaume; Muttarak, Raya; Scherbov, Sergei

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0238678

Cited by 103 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 24 publications

(27 reference statements)

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“…If the virus continues to spread and mortality reaches 10%, loss in life expectancy is likely to be 1.4 years. Our findings are consistent with literature [ 4 , 8 , 18 ]. A high reduction of life expectancy (2.94 years) has been observed in USA [ 40 ].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

“…A study conducted in Italy found that fatigue, dyspnea, joint pain, and chest pain were persistent among the recovered patients [ 16 ]. Studies have projected premature mortality and reduction in life expectancy due to the infection across countries [ 4 , 8 , 17 , 18 ]. After a certain threshold level of COVID-19 prevalence, life expectancy starts decreasing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…After a certain threshold level of COVID-19 prevalence, life expectancy starts decreasing. In North America, Europe, Latin America, and the Caribbean, life expectancy at birth has been estimated to have reduced by 1 year at 10% prevalence of infection [ 4 ]. The COVID-19 attributable mortality has the potential to reduce life expectancy in India, weekly and annual life expectancy at birth in Spain, and seasonal life expectancy in Italy [ 8 , 17 , 18 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of COVID-19 infection on life expectancy, premature mortality, and DALY in Maharashtra, India

et al. 2021

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Background The COVID-19 infections and deaths have largely been uneven within and between countries. With 17% of the world’s population, India has so far had 13% of global COVID-19 infections and 8.5% of deaths. Maharashtra accounting for 9% of India’s population, is the worst affected state, with 19% of infections and 33% of total deaths in the country until 23rd December 2020. Though a number of studies have examined the vulnerability to and spread of COVID-19 and its effect on mortality, no attempt has been made to understand its impact on mortality in the states of India. Method Using data from multiple sources and under the assumption that COVID-19 deaths are additional deaths in the population, this paper examined the impact of the disease on premature mortality, loss of life expectancy, years of potential life lost (YPLL), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in Maharashtra. Descriptive statistics, a set of abridged life tables, YPLL, and DALY were used in the analysis. Estimates of mortality indices were compared pre- and during COVID-19. Result COVID-19 attributable deaths account for 5.3% of total deaths in the state and have reduced the life expectancy at birth by 0.8 years, from 73.2 years in the pre-COVID-19 period to 72.4 years by the end of 2020. If COVID-19 attributable deaths increase to 10% of total deaths, life expectancy at birth will likely reduce by 1.4 years. The probability of death in 20–64 years of age (the prime working-age group) has increased from 0.15 to 0.16 due to COVID-19. There has been 1.06 million additional loss of years (YPLL) in the state, and DALY due to COVID-19 has been estimated to be 6 per thousand. Conclusion COVID-19 has increased premature mortality, YPLL, and DALY and has reduced life expectancy at every age in Maharashtra.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of COVID-19 infection on life expectancy, premature mortality, and DALY in Maharashtra, India

et al. 2021

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“…In Petropoulos, a continuation of coronavirus COVID-19 is predicted using a sample. In Muttrack and Scherhov ( 2020 ), the impact of a period of life expectancy is discussed. Forecasting Team Nature ( 2020 ) using the SEIR method predicted COVID-19 patterns and traced the possible outcomes for the period September 22, 2020, to February 28, 2021, using the COVID-19 cases and mortality data from February 1, 2020, to September 21, 2020.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

RETRACTED ARTICLE: The prediction of the lifetime of the new coronavirus in the USA using mathematical models

Selvakumar

Lokesh

2021

Soft Comput

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The World Health Organization (WHO) on December 31, 2019, was informed of several cases of respiratory diseases of unknown origin in the city of Wuhan in the Chinese Province of Hubei, the clinical manifestations of which were similar to those of viral pneumonia and manifested as fever, cough, and shortness of breath. And, the disease caused by the virus is named the new coronavirus disease 2019 and it will be abbreviated as 2019-nCoV and COVID-19. As of January 30, 2020, the WHO classified this epidemic as a global health emergency (Chung et al. in Radiology 295(1):202–207, 2020). It is an international real-life problem. Due to deaths, globally everyone is under fear. Now, it is the responsibility of researchers to give hope to the people. In this article, we aim to better protect people and general pandemic preparedness by predicting the lifetime of the disease-causing virus using three mathematical models. This article deals with a complex real-life problem people face all over the world, an international real-life problem. The main focus is on the USA due to large infection and death due to coronavirus and thereby the life of every individual is uncertain. The death counts of the USA from February 29 to April 22, 2020, are used in this article as a data set. The death counts of the USA are fitted by the solutions of three mathematical models and a solution to an international problem is achieved. Based on the death rate, the lifetime of the coronavirus COVID-19 is predicted as 1464.76 days from February 29, 2020. That is, after March 2024 there will be no death in the USA due to COVID-19 if everyone follows the guidelines of WHO and the advice of healthcare workers. People and government can get prepared for this situation and many lives can be saved. It is the contribution of soft computing. Finally, this article suggests several steps to control the spread and severity of the disease. The research work, the lifetime prediction presented in this article is entirely new and differs from all other articles in the literature.

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“…The repercussions of COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy and society continue to rise. By 6 January 2021, COVID-19 pandemic had caused more than 20.5 million years of life lost (YLL) due to excess deaths in 81 countries (Arolas et al, 2021) and caused a decline at least a year on life expectancy in many countries (John & Susan, 2020;Marois et al, 2020). Based on the WHO report, the loss of 8.3% in global income, which is attributable to a loss of 8.8% in global working hours as a result of inactivity, rising unemployment, and a decline in labor market participation rate that is "equivalent to 255 million jobs" (ILO, 2020); YLL due to premature deaths; and a decline in life expectancy to inflict a loss of US$10 trillion in future earnings (WHO, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Imperatives for post COVID-19 recovery of Indonesia’s education, labor, and SME sectors

Ssenyonga

2021

Cogent Economics & Finance

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The article assesses the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the Indonesian economy and the influence that repercussions from the pandemic have had on the country's long-term development goals and objectives. The article used backcasting approach to link expected development objectives and targets with current state of social and economic conditions. Results demonstrated a gap between long-term and current economic performance, attributable largely to the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and society. A drastic decline in aggregate demand due to contraction in household and corporate expenditure, investment, and exports sparked a surge in open unemployment and underemployment. While swift and wide-ranging government response helped to attenuate the impact of the crisis on the economy and vulnerable sections of society, COVID-19 pandemic impact compounded existing fundamental problems facing the Indonesian economy including de-industrialization, wide urban-rural, East-West, inter-regional digital divide; unemployment and underemployment; weak human resource development; low participation in global value chains; and low education effectiveness. Policy recommendations to nudge the economy and society back to its long-term development trajectory include initiatives to ABOUT THE AUTHOR Muyanja Ssenyonga, Jameaba, is an economist holding a PhD in economics from Gadjah Mada University (GMU), Yogyakarta. Research interests include cross-cutting topics including labor relations, Poverty and Inequality, financial stability and financial inclusion. Publications include but not limited to financial inclusion and financial stability, poverty and income inequality, and labor relations, and banking and digitalization. Professional experience includes serving as a visiting lecturer and researcher, Master Program in Public Administration (MAP-GMU), research fellow in Pavia University, Lombardy, Italy (spring 2016); Research fellowship South-South Cooperation, Santiago, Chile (spring 2013). The research on imperatives for the post COVID-19 pandemic Indonesian economy builds on previous research experience on the intersection of digitalization, financial institutions performance, educational effectiveness, and labor relations. Results underscore the fact that to attain sustainable effectiveness and competitiveness, it is imperative for economies to adopt and align their practices, procedures and institutions with emerging trends and drivers of best-practice performance.

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Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy

Cited by 103 publications

References 24 publications

Impact of COVID-19 infection on life expectancy, premature mortality, and DALY in Maharashtra, India

Impact of COVID-19 infection on life expectancy, premature mortality, and DALY in Maharashtra, India

RETRACTED ARTICLE: The prediction of the lifetime of the new coronavirus in the USA using mathematical models

Imperatives for post COVID-19 recovery of Indonesia’s education, labor, and SME sectors

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