Assessment and modelling of uncertainty in precipitation forecasts from TIGGE using fuzzy probability and Bayesian theory

Cai, Chenkai; Wang, Jianqun; Li, Zhijia

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.123995

Cited by 23 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Mann-Kendall's mutation test is a simple non-parametric test, which defines a statistical sequence under the assumption of an independent random time sequence as follows (Cai, Wang, & Li, 2019):…”

Section: Mann-kendall Mutation Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the climate and human impacts on the hydrology of the Yalong River Basin using two approaches

Zhao

Dong

Wang

2021

River Research & Apps

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Runoff in many river basins worldwide has shown an alteration under the impact of global climate change and increasing human activities. A detailed quantitative and qualitative analysis on the impact of climate change and human activities is therefore of great significance towards the sustainable water resources planning and management. In this study, the impact of climate change and human activities on the runoff was first quantitatively analyzed for the Yalong River Basin (YRB), China, by using a combination of the CREST hydrologic model and the Choudhury-Yang equation based elastic coefficient method, respectively. Furthermore, a qualitative analysis on the response of runoff to human activities was carried out in terms of land use changes, water withdrawal and reservoir operation. Results indicate that precipitation and runoff of the Yalong River Basin increased and decreased at the rate of 1.17 and 0.35 mm/a, respectively, for the period from 1980 to 2018. Climate change and human activities contributed 6.65-21.67% and 78.33-93.35% to the runoff variation, respectively. Among the human activities, we found that reservoir construction and operation is likely to be the major driver of the variation in the hydrologic regime of the YRB. Our methods and findings are expected to provide implications for water resources planning and management for the YRB and different basins across the globe.

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Section: Mann-kendall Mutation Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the climate and human impacts on the hydrology of the Yalong River Basin using two approaches

Zhao

Dong

Wang

2021

River Research & Apps

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In hydrological modelling, the evaluation of the simulation uncertainty is a critical and meaningful step for an effective real-time forecasting [50,51]. Therefore, we suggest to select the three 2D-model maps indicated by our approach as the closest to the 1D-model map, and to evaluate the percent difference of some meaningful physical variables (i.e., the mean flood depth) between the "expected" 2D-model map and these three maps.…”

Section: Uncertainty Analysis Of the Selected Mapmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Method to Improve the Flood Maps Forecasted by On-Line Use of 1D Model

Filianoti

Nicotra

Labate

et al. 2020

Water

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Forecasting floods in urban areas during a heavy rainfall is the aim of every early warning system. 2D-models produce the most accurate flood maps, but they are practically useless as quasi real-time tools, because their run times are comparable to times of propagation of floods. Run times of 1D-model are of tens of seconds, but their predictions lack accuracy and many useful indicators of flood severity. Our aim is the identification of the 2D-model map that is more similar to the actual map, chosen among those simulated off-line. To this aim, we produce a rough flood map of the occurring event, through a quasi real-time simulation of the rainfall-runoff using a 1D-model. Then we apply an original method, named “ranking approach”, to perform the best matching. This method is applied to the Corace torrent (Calabria, Southern Italy), using 17 synthetic hyetographs to simulate the same number of rainfall-runoff events, using 1D (SWMM) and 2D (MIKE) models. The method proves to be effective in 65% of the cases, while in 82% of cases (i.e., for 14 cases out 17), the event produced by the same ietograph falls within the third rank.

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“…Their results indicated that the ECMWF and JMA forecasts performed best among all the predictions, and the postprocessed results improved the raw CMA forecasts significantly. Cai et al (2019) evaluated four control forecasts from TIGGE over the Shihe River basin during the flood season in the time period 2015-18. Their results showed that the JMA forecast performed best and the prediction performance of the UKMO and ECMWF forecasts were close to that of the JMA forecast.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation and Application of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Products for Mainland China Based on TIGGE Multimodel Data

Shu

Zhang

Jin

et al. 2021

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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We evaluated 24-h control forecast products from The International Grand Global Ensemble center over the 10 first-class water resource regions of Mainland China in 2013–2018 from the perspective of precipitation processes (continuous) and precipitation events (discrete). We evaluated the forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). We analyzed the differences among the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in predicting various types of precipitation events and showed the spatial variations in the quantitative precipitation forecast efficiency of the NWP models over Mainland China. Meanwhile, we also combined four hydrological models to conduct meteo-hydrological runoff forecasting in three typical basins and used Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method to perform the ensemble forecast of different scenarios. Our results showed that the models generally underestimate and overestimate precipitation in northwestern China and southwestern China, respectively. This tendency became increasingly clear as the lead time rose. Each model has a high reliability for the forecast of no-rain and light rain in the next 10 days, whereas the NWP model only has high reliability on the next day for moderate and heavy rain events. In general, each model showed different capabilities of capturing various precipitation events. For example, the CMA and CMC forecasts had a better prediction performance for heavy rain but greater errors for other events. The CPTEC forecast performed well for long lead times for no-rain and light rain but had poor predictability for moderate and heavy rains. The KMA, UKMO, and NCEP forecasts performed better for no-rain and light rain. However, their forecasting ability was average for moderate and heavy rain. Although the JMA model performed better in terms of errors and accuracy, it seriously underestimated heavy rain events. The extreme rainstorm and flood forecast results of the coupled JMA model should be treated with caution. Overall, the ECMWF had the most robust performance. Discrepancies in the forecasting effects of various models on different precipitation events vary with the lead time and region. When coupled with hydrological models, NWP models not only control the accuracy of runoff prediction directly but also increase the difference among the prediction results of different hydrological models with the increase in NWP error significantly. Among all the single models, ECMWF, JMA, and NCEP have better effects than the other models. Moreover, the ensemble forecast based on BMA is more robust than the single model, which can improve the quality of runoff prediction in terms of accuracy and reliability.

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Assessment and modelling of uncertainty in precipitation forecasts from TIGGE using fuzzy probability and Bayesian theory

Cited by 23 publications

References 42 publications

Quantifying the climate and human impacts on the hydrology of the Yalong River Basin using two approaches

Quantifying the climate and human impacts on the hydrology of the Yalong River Basin using two approaches

A Method to Improve the Flood Maps Forecasted by On-Line Use of 1D Model

Evaluation and Application of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Products for Mainland China Based on TIGGE Multimodel Data

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