Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

Menut, Laurent; Bessagnet, Bertrand

doi:10.5194/angeo-28-61-2010

Cited by 82 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 96 publications

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“…Improving the performance of high-resolution localscale models requires high quality emission inventories with sufficiently high spatial resolution (Skjøth et al, 2011). In addition, a high temporal resolution for emissions is also crucial for the performance of CTMs, and dynamic calculations of NH 3 emissions are needed for a better prediction of high particulate matter episodes (Menut and Bessagnet, 2010;Henze et al, 2009). This is especially relevant as NH 3 emissions in winter will lead to a higher contribution to particulate matter than NH 3 emissions in summer.…”

Section: Improved Treatment Of Sub-grid Variability and Spatial And Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advances in understanding, models and parameterizations of biosphere-atmosphere ammonia exchange

et al. 2013

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Atmospheric ammonia (NH₃) dominates global emissions of total reactive nitrogen (N_r), while emissions from agricultural production systems contribute about two-thirds of global NH₃ emissions; the remaining third emanates from oceans, natural vegetation, humans, wild animals and biomass burning. On land, NH₃ emitted from the various sources eventually returns to the biosphere by dry deposition to sink areas, predominantly semi-natural vegetation, and by wet and dry deposition as ammonium (NH₄⁺) to all surfaces. However, the land/atmosphere exchange of gaseous NH₃ is in fact bi-directional over unfertilized as well as fertilized ecosystems, with periods and areas of emission and deposition alternating in time (diurnal, seasonal) and space (patchwork landscapes). The exchange is controlled by a range of environmental factors, including meteorology, surface layer turbulence, thermodynamics, air and surface heterogeneous-phase chemistry, canopy geometry, plant development stage, leaf age, organic matter decomposition, soil microbial turnover, and, in agricultural systems, by fertilizer application rate, fertilizer type, soil type, crop type, and agricultural management practices. We review the range of processes controlling NH₃ emission and uptake in the different parts of the soil-canopy-atmosphere continuum, with NH₃ emission potentials defined at the substrate and leaf levels by different [NH₄⁺] / [H⁺] ratios (Γ). Surface/atmosphere exchange models for NH₃ are necessary to compute the temporal and spatial patterns of emissions and deposition at the soil, plant, field, landscape, regional and global scales, in order to assess the multiple environmental impacts of airborne and deposited NH₃ and NH₄⁺. Models of soil/vegetation/atmosphere NH₃ exchange are reviewed from the substrate and leaf scales to the global scale. They range from simple steady-state, "big leaf" canopy resistance models, to dynamic, multi-layer, multi-process, multi-chemical species schemes. Their level of complexity depends on their purpose, the spatial scale at which they are applied, the current level of parameterization, and the availability of the input data they require. State-of-the-art solutions for determining the emission/sink Γ potentials through the soil/canopy system include coupled, interactive chemical transport models (CTM) and soil/ecosystem modelling at the regional scale. However, it remains a matter for debate to what extent realistic options for future regional and global models should be based on process-based mechanistic versus empirical and regression-type models. Further discussion is needed on the extent and timescale by which new approaches can be used, such as integration with ecosystem models and satellite observations

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Section: Improved Treatment Of Sub-grid Variability and Spatial And Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advances in understanding, models and parameterizations of biosphere-atmosphere ammonia exchange

et al. 2013

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“…To date, a total of 23 model systems routinely simulate the air quality over Europe, with seven systems also operated in the forecasting mode (Menut and Bessagnet, 2010). Due to the episodic nature of dust outbreaks, the representation of these events cannot be well simulated with solely the information of aerosol boundary conditions (Jiménez-Guerrero et al, 2008a;Menut and Bessagnet, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Due to the episodic nature of dust outbreaks, the representation of these events cannot be well simulated with solely the information of aerosol boundary conditions (Jiménez-Guerrero et al, 2008a;Menut and Bessagnet, 2010). Vautard et al (2005a) showed that simulated aerosol loadings, using the current knowledge on aerosol mechanisms, may be underestimated by up to 30-50 % if only anthropogenic sources are taken into account.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An annual assessment of air quality with the CALIOPE modeling system over Spain

Baldasano

Pay

Jorba

et al. 2011

Science of The Total Environment

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The CALIOPE project, funded by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment, aims at establishing an air quality forecasting system for Spain. With this goal, CALIOPE modeling system was developed and applied with high resolution (4 km x 4 km, 1hr) using the HERMES emission model (including emissions of resuspended particles from paved roads) specifically built up for Spain. The present study provides an evaluation and an assessment of that air quality modeling system, namely WRF-ARW/HERMES/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b for a full year simulation in 2004 over Spain. The evaluation focused on the capability of the model to reproduce the temporal and spatial distribution of gas phase species (NO2, O3, and SO2) and particulate matter (PM10) against ground-based measurements from the Spanish air quality monitoring network. The evaluation of the modeling results on an hourly basis showed a strong dependency of the performance of the model on the type of zone (urban, suburban and rural) and the dominant emission sources (traffic, industrial, and background). The O3 chemistry is best represented in summer, when mean hourly variability and high peaks are generally well reproduced. The mean normalized error and bias meet the recommendations proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA) and the European regulations. Modeled O3 shows higher performance for urban than for rural stations, especially at traffic stations in large cities, since stations influenced by traffic emissions (i.e. high NOx emissions) are better characterized with a more pronounced daily variability. NOx/O3 chemistry is better represented under non-limited-NO2 regimes. SO 2 is mainly produced from isolated point sources (power generation and transformation industries) which generate large plumes of high SO 2 concentration affecting the air quality on a local to national scale where the meteorological pattern is crucial. The contribution of mineral dust from the Sahara desert through the BSC-DREAM8b model helps to satisfactorily reproduce episodic high PM10 concentration peaks at background stations. The model assessment indicates that one of the main air quality-related problems in Spain is the high level of O3. A quarter of the Iberian Peninsula presents more than 30 days exceeding the value 120 µg m -3 for the maximum 8-hr O3 concentration as a consequence of the transport of O3 precursors downwind the Madrid and Barcelona metropolitan areas, and industrial areas and cities in the Mediterranean coast.

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“…For a review of the current systems that provide aerosol forecasts, some with focus on dust, see for example Benedetti et al (2014) and Sessions et al (2015).Ensemble systems are presented in Rubin et al (2016) andDi Tomaso et al (2017). An overview of regional 240 aerosol forecasting systems can be found in Menut and Bessagnet (2010); Kukkonen et al (2011);Zhang et al (2012a, b); Baklanov et al (2014).…”

Section: Aerosol Prediction Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Status and future of Numerical Atmospheric Aerosol Prediction with a focus on data requirements

Benedetti¹,

Reid²,

Baklanov³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Numerical prediction of aerosol particle properties has become an important activity at many research and operational weather centres due to growing interest from a diverse set of stakeholders, such as air quality regulatory bodies, aviation and military authorities, solar energy plant managers, providers of climate services, and health professionals. The prediction of aerosol particle properties in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models faces a number of challenges owing to 5 the complexity of atmospheric aerosol processes and their sensitivity to the underlying meteorological conditions. Errors in aerosol prediction concern all processes involved in the aerosol life cycle.These include errors on the source terms (for both anthropogenic and natural emissions), errors directly dependent on the meteorology (e.g., mixing, transport, scavenging by precipitation), as well as errors related to aerosol chemistry (e.g., nucleation, gas-aerosol partitioning, chemical transfor-10 mation and growth, hygroscopicity). The main goal of current research on aerosol forecast consists in prioritizing these errors and trying to reduce the most important ones through model development and data assimilation. Aerosol particle observations from satellite and ground-based platforms have been crucial to guide model development of the recent years, and have been made more readily available for model evaluation and assimilation. However, for the sustainability of the aerosol parti-15 cle prediction activities around the globe, it is crucial that quality aerosol observations continue to be made available from different platforms (space, near-surface, and aircraft) and freely shared. This white paper reviews current requirements for aerosol observations in the context of the operational activities carried out at various global and regional centres. Some of the requirements are equally applicable to aerosol-climate research. However, the focus here is on the global operational prediction 20 of aerosol properties such as mass concentrations and optical parameters. Most operational models are based on bulk schemes that do not predict the size distribution of the aerosol particles. Others are based on a mix of "bin" and bulk schemes with limited capability to simulate the size information.However the next generation of aerosol operational models will have the capability to predict both mass and number density which will provide a more complete description of the aerosols properties. 25A brief overview of the state-of-the-art is provided with an introduction on the importance of aerosol prediction activities. The criteria on which the requirements for aerosol observations are based are also outlined. Assimilation and evaluation aspects are discussed from the perspective of the user requirements.

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Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

Cited by 82 publications

References 96 publications

Advances in understanding, models and parameterizations of biosphere-atmosphere ammonia exchange

Advances in understanding, models and parameterizations of biosphere-atmosphere ammonia exchange

An annual assessment of air quality with the CALIOPE modeling system over Spain

Status and future of Numerical Atmospheric Aerosol Prediction with a focus on data requirements

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