Attribution of recovery in lower‐stratospheric ozone

Yang, Eun-Su; Cunnold, D. M.; Salawitch, R. J.; McCormick, M. P.; Russell, James M.; Zawodny, J. M.; Oltmans, S. J.; Newchurch, M. J.

doi:10.1029/2005jd006371

Cited by 78 publications

(90 citation statements)

References 85 publications

(146 reference statements)

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“…We select the year 1997 as the turnaround year of the TCO time series (Yang et al 2006). The piecewise linear trends of TCO and zonal TCO anomalies for the period 1979-1997 (referred to as 'ozone depletion' period) and 1997-2015 (referred to as 'ozone recovery' period) are shown in Fig.…”

Section: Zonally Asymmetric Ozone Trend and Its Influencing Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

et al. 2018

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Using various satellite-based observations, a linear ozone transport model (LOTM), a chemistry-climate model (WACCM3) and an offline chemical transport model (SLIMCAT), zonally asymmetric trends of the total column ozone (TCO) in the northern middle latitudes during winter for the period 1979-2015 are analyzed and factors responsible for the trends are diagnosed. The results reveal that there are significant negative TCO trends over the North Pacific and positive TCO trends over the northwestern North America. The zonally asymmetric TCO trends are mainly contributed by the trends in partial column ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) which are closely related to the long-term changes of geopotential height in the troposphere. Furthermore, the trends of geopontential height in the UTLS are mainly modulated by pattern changes in the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Cold Ocean-Warm Land (COWL) and the North Pacific (NP) index. Accordingly, the zonally asymmetric TCO trends can be largely reconstructed by the trends of the above three teleconnection patterns. Sea surface temperature (SST) changes over the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean can also exert a significant contribution to the zonally asymmetric TCO trends through their influence on the COWL and NP patterns. In addition, chemical ozone loss partially offsets the positive trends in zonal TCO anomalies over Central Siberia and enhances the positive TCO trends over northwestern North America. However, the contribution of chemical processes to the zonally asymmetric TCO trends is relatively smaller than that of dynamical transport effects. Interpreting the zonally asymmetric TCO trends and their responsible factors would be helpful for accurately predicting the stratospheric ozone return date in the northern middle latitudes.

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Section: Zonally Asymmetric Ozone Trend and Its Influencing Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

et al. 2018

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“…4.2.2), particularly given the computational constraints of CCMs. Decadal-scale dynamical variability may also have contributed to producing larger apparent trends in the observations, particularly at levels below 18 km (∼65 hPa) (Yang et al, 2006;WMO, 2007, Sect. 3.2.3.2).…”

Section: Ozone Changes: Recent Pastmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the contributions to stratospheric ozone changes from ozone depleting substances and greenhouse gases

et al. 2010

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Abstract.A state-of-the-art chemistry climate model coupled to a three-dimensional ocean model is used to produce three experiments, all seamlessly covering the period 1950-2100, forced by different combinations of long-lived Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and Ozone Depleting Substances (ODSs). The experiments are designed to quantify the separate effects of GHGs and ODSs on the evolution of ozone, as well as the extent to which these effects are independent of each other, by alternately holding one set of these two forcings constant in combination with a third experiment where both ODSs and GHGs vary. We estimate that up to the year 2000 the net decrease in the column amount of ozone above 20 hPa is approximately 75% of the decrease that can be attributed to ODSs due to the offsetting effects of cooling by increased CO 2 . Over the 21st century, as ODSs decrease, continued cooling from CO 2 is projected to account for more than 50% of the projected increase in ozone above 20 hPa. Changes in ozone below 20 hPa show a redistribution of ozone from tropical to extra-tropical latitudes with an increase in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. In addition to a latitudinal redistribution of ozone, we find that the globally averaged column amount of ozone below 20 hPa decreases over the 21st century, which significantly mitigates the effect of upper stratospheric cooling on total column ozone. Analysis by linear regression shows that the recovery of ozone from the effects of ODSs generally follows the decline in reactive chlorine and bromine levels, with the exception of the lower polar stratosphere where recovery of ozone in the second half of the 21st century is slower than would be indicated by the decline in reactive chlorine and bromine concentraCorrespondence to: D. A. Plummer (david.plummer@ec.gc.ca) tions. These results also reveal the degree to which GHGrelated effects mute the chemical effects of N 2 O on ozone in the standard future scenario used for the WMO Ozone Assessment. Increases in the residual circulation of the atmosphere and chemical effects from CO 2 cooling more than halve the increase in reactive nitrogen in the mid to upper stratosphere that results from the specified increase in N 2 O between 1950 and 2100.

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“…Many investigations have been conducted for monitoring and detection of global ozone trends and behavior using a variety of ground-based and satellite instruments and their comparisons. Recent studies based on long-term ozone data records and model simulations have significantly improved our understanding in the roles of various dynamical and chemical processes governing the ozone variations (e.g., Yang, 2006;Stolarski and Frith, 2006;WMO, 2011). However, many detail characteristics of the expected ozone recovery such as the beginning of the recovery and the timing of the recovery are still unclear.…”

Section: E W Chiou Et Al: Comparison Of Profile Total Ozone From Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of profile total ozone from SBUV (v8.6) with GOME-type and ground-based total ozone for a 16-year period (1996 to 2011)

et al. 2014

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Abstract. This paper describes the comparison of the variability of total column ozone inferred from the three independent multi-year data records, namely, (i) Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) v8.6 profile total ozone, (ii) GTO (GOME-type total ozone), and (iii) ground-based total ozone data records covering the 16-year overlap period (March 1996 It has been found that, on average, the differences in monthly zonal mean total ozone vary between −0.3 and 0.8 % and are well within 1 %.For GTO minus SBUV, the standard deviations and ranges (maximum minus minimum) of the differences regarding monthly zonal mean total ozone vary between 0.6-0.7 % and 2.8-3.8 % respectively, depending on the latitude band. The corresponding standard deviations and ranges regarding the differences in monthly zonal mean anomalies show values between 0.4-0.6 % and 2.2-3.5 %. The standard deviations and ranges of the differences ground-based minus SBUV regarding both monthly zonal means and anomalies are larger by a factor of 1.4-2.9 in comparison to GTO minus SBUV.The ground-based zonal means demonstrate larger scattering of monthly data compared to satellite-based records. The differences in the scattering are significantly reduced if seasonal zonal averages are analyzed.The trends of the differences GTO minus SBUV and ground-based minus SBUV are found to vary between −0.04 and 0.1 % yr −1 (−0.1 and 0.3 DU yr −1 ). These negligibly small trends have provided strong evidence that there are no significant time-dependent differences among these multiyear total ozone data records.Analyses of the annual deviations from pre-1980 level indicate that, for the 15-year period of 1996 to 2010, all three data records show a gradual increase at 30-60 • N from −5 % in 1996 to −2 % in 2010. In contrast, at 50-30 • S and 30 • S-30 • N there has been a levelling off in the 15 years after 1996. The deviations inferred from GTO and SBUV show agreement within 1 %, but a slight increase has been found in the differences during the period 1996-2010.

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Attribution of recovery in lower‐stratospheric ozone

Cited by 78 publications

References 85 publications

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

Quantifying the contributions to stratospheric ozone changes from ozone depleting substances and greenhouse gases

Comparison of profile total ozone from SBUV (v8.6) with GOME-type and ground-based total ozone for a 16-year period (1996 to 2011)

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