SummaryWe developed a mathematical model to simulate the impact of various partially effective preventive HIV vaccination scenarios in a population at high risk for heterosexually transmitted HIV. We considered an adult population defined by gender (male/female), disease stage (HIVnegative, HIV-positive, AIDS, and death), and vaccination status (unvaccinated/vaccinated) in Soweto, South Africa. Input data included initial HIV prevalence of 20% (women) and 12% (men), vaccination coverage of 75%, and exclusive male negotiation of condom use. We explored how changes in vaccine efficacy and post-vaccination condom use would affect HIV prevalence and total HIV infections prevented over a 10-year period. In the base-case scenario, a 40% effective HIV vaccine would avert 61,000 infections and reduce future HIV prevalence from 20% to 13%. A 25% increase (or decrease) in condom use among vaccinated individuals would instead avert 75,000 (or only 46,000) infections and reduce the HIV prevalence to 12% (or only 15%). Furthermore, certain combinations of increased risk behavior and vaccines with <43% efficacy could worsen the epidemic. Even modestly effective HIV vaccines can confer enormous benefits in terms of HIV infections averted and decreased HIV prevalence. However, programs to reduce risk behavior may be important components of successful vaccination campaigns. 4 Given the urgent need for an HIV vaccine, vaccines with only partial efficacy are likely to be used initially in populations at high risk for HIV infection. 5 The potential for post-vaccination risk-taking behavior to increase poses a significant threat to the successful use of partially effective vaccines in future vaccination programs. [5][6][7][8] Individuals might increase their risk-taking behavior, assuming they are completely protected from HIV when, in reality, they might have only limited protection or none at all. [9][10][11][12][13][14] Models have shown that even a partially effective HIV vaccine with minimal efficacy could have an enormous population impact on the HIV epidemic in high-risk groups or areas with a high prevalence of HIV, such as sub-Saharan Africa, [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22] but that the magnitude of this impact depends on a fine balance between the efficacy of the vaccine, the vaccine coverage level, and the change in risky behavior. 18,20,[23][24][25][26][27]
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MethodsWe developed a dynamic compartmental epidemic model for heterosexual HIV transmission and disease progression to simulate the impact of various partially effective preventive HIV vaccination scenarios and subsequent changes in risk behavior in a population at high risk for heterosexually transmitted HIV in Soweto, South Africa.* For this study, a preventive vaccine is defined as a vaccine that prevents primary infection with HIV, and a partially effective vaccine (low-efficacy vaccine, imperfect vaccine) is defined as a vaccine with less than 100% efficacy, or ability to prevent transmission of HIV.
Model DescriptionThe model defines 6 "c...