Beyond climate envelope projections: Roe deer survival and environmental change

Abstract

Research on climate change impacts has focused on projecting changes in the geographic ranges of species, with less emphasis on the vital rates giving rise to species distributions. Managing ungulate populations under future climate change will require an understanding of how their vital rates are affected by direct climatic effects and the indirect climatic and non‐climatic effects that are often overlooked by climate impact studies. We used generalized linear models and capture–mark–recapture models to assess the influence of a variety of direct climatic, indirect climatic, and non‐climatic predictors on the survival of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) at 2 sites in Sweden. The models indicated that although direct climatic effects (e.g., precipitation) explained some variation in survival, indirect climatic effects (e.g., an index of vegetation production), and non‐climatic effects (hunting by lynx [Lynx lynx] and humans) had greater explanatory power. Climate change is likely to increase vegetation productivity in northern Europe, and, coupled with the positive effects of vegetation productivity on roe deer survival, might lead to population increases in the future. Survival was negatively affected by lynx presence where these predators occur and by human harvest in the site that lacked predators. In the future, managers might find that a combination of increased harvest and predation by recovering carnivore populations may be necessary to mitigate climate‐induced increases in roe deer survival. Considering vegetation availability and predation effects is likely to improve predictions of ungulate population responses to variation in climate and, therefore, inform management under future climate change. © 2016 The Wildlife Society.

Validating a common tick survey method: cloth-dragging and line transects

“…Although Grimsö and Bogesund are only 163 km apart (see Fig. 1 ), they are in different ecotones with different tick-host communities (Davis et al 2016 ). Previous fieldwork indicates a much higher tick abundance at Bogesund than at Grimsö, and this observation is in accordance with reports about human cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) from the two areas.…”

“…Bogesund has noncyclic rodent populations (A. flavicollis, A. sylvaticus, C. glareolus) and populations of large mammals, including moose, wild boar, roe deer, red fox, mountain and European hare (Angelstam et al 1985;Kjellander and Nordström 2003). For more detailed descriptions of Grimsö and Bogesund see Davis et al (2016). The geographical location of the two study areas Grimsö (low tick density, left panel) and Bogesund (high tick density, right panel).…”

Prolongation of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Cycles in Warmer Climatic Conditions

“…In turn, roe deer—as a typical representative of large hosts—is ‘niche switching’, i.e., it adaptively changes environment in the course of a year to avoid harsh climatic conditions and take advantage of improved forage [36]. It can benefit from climate warming through reduced mortality, increased individual fitness, and population growth [37]. This could explain why the presumably ‘deer’ long cycles are more influenced by climate change.…”

Relationships among white-tailed deer density, harvest, and landscape metrics in TN, USA

“…Only 5% of the population in the USA (US Department of the Interior 2016) and 0.5% of the population in Europe hunts (Reimoser and Reimoser 2016). Climate change has produced warmer winters, and more animals survive as a result (Maillard et al 2010;Davis et al 2016). A trend to live in urban areas has left much of the rural land undeveloped thereby providing more ungulate habitat (Apollonio et al 2010).…”