Bookmakers’ mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break

Winkelmann, David; Deutscher, Christian; Ötting, Marius

doi:10.1080/00036846.2021.1873234

Cited by 15 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 41 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…One possible concern is that the betting odds themselves were affected by the COVID-19 restrictions (Winkelmann et al, 2021). To obviate this concern and show that the betting odds are not differently distributed in 2019 and 2020 seasons, we ran a set of univariate regressions of each of the betting odds for home team and separately for the away team on a dummy variable indicating whether the specific observation was in the 2020 season ( Season 2020).…”

Section: Data and Descriptive Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of COVID-19 on Home Advantage in Women’s Soccer: Evidence From Swedish Damallsvenskan

Krumer

Smith

2022

American Behavioral Scientist

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Most studies of the effect of COVID-19 restrictions on home advantage have been conducted on men’s soccer, with the women’s game lacking scientific attention. The present study fills this gap by investigating games in Swedish Damallsvenskan women’s soccer league. Comparing games in the 2019 and 2020 seasons, we find a slight, but not statistically significant reduction in home advantage in games without crowds in terms of goals scored and points achieved. However, unlike in most studies on men’s soccer, we find that away teams received significantly more yellow cards in games without crowds compared to games with crowds. We discuss our results in the context of the findings in men’s soccer. JEL Classification: D00, J71, L00, Z13, Z20.

show abstract

Section: Data and Descriptive Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of COVID-19 on Home Advantage in Women’s Soccer: Evidence From Swedish Damallsvenskan

Krumer

Smith

2022

American Behavioral Scientist

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…According to previous literature (Forrest & Simmons, 2008; Winkelmann et al, 2021; and as also verified later in the “Real-World Betting Markets” section), we select β 0 = − 2.5 and β 1 = 5. Due to the high competition between bookmakers, we assume potential biases to have a limited magnitude.…”

Section: Simulation-based Analysis Of Betting Marketsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With the initially vanishing home advantage during COVID-19, the research covers betting markets’ (non)response to such changes. Papers by (Fischer & Haucap, 2022; Meier et al, 2021; Winkelmann et al, 2021) record temporal inefficiencies in betting markets as bookmakers did not adjust the winning chances by home teams accordingly.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are Betting Markets Inefficient? Evidence From Simulations and Real Data

Winkelmann,

Ötting,

Deutscher

et al. 2023

Journal of Sports Economics

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Previous literature leaves the impression that betting market inefficiencies are widespread. However, most studies rely upon limited data and ignore biases’ persistence. Our simulation-based analyses show (1) the impact of low sample sizes on the chance to detect markets that only appear to be efficient and (2) the frequency of observing inefficient periods within fully efficient markets. Afterwards, we (3) empirically analyze real-world football betting markets for 14 consecutive seasons. While inefficiencies occur in singular seasons, they are not persistent or systematic across leagues. Moreover, our simulation-based analyses suggest that statistically significant effects in single seasons are likely to be observed even under full market efficiency.

show abstract

“…This can be partially explained by the relative importance of the first division clubs and the higher turnout of fans in normal times due to larger stadiums, which might make first division clubs more responsive to the lack of support (Fischer & Haucap, 2020). Teams in the top German league, the Bundesliga, experienced a decrease in home team goals and an increase in away team goals during the ghost games induced by Covid-19 compared to earlier seasons (Winkelmann et al, 2021). This reduction in home advantage was found to be driven also by the complete disappearance of the referees' home bias (Dilger & Vischer, 2020).…”

Section: Home Advantage and Market Efficiency During Covid-19mentioning

confidence: 99%

Home advantage and mispricing in indoor sports’ ghost games: the case of European basketball

Angelis

Reade

2022

Ann Oper Res

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Several recent studies suggest that the home advantage, that is, the benefit competitors accrue from performing in familiar surroundings, was—at least temporarily—reduced in games played without spectators due to the COVID-19 Pandemic. These games played without fans during the Pandemic have been dubbed ‘ghost games’. However, the majority of the research to date focus on soccer and no contributions have been provided for indoor sports, where the effect of the support of the fans might have a stronger impact than in outdoor arenas. In this paper, we try to fill this gap by investigating the effect of ghost games in basketball with a special focus on the possible reduction of the home advantage due to the absence of spectators inside the arena. In particular, we test (i) for the reduction of the home advantage in basketball, (ii) whether such reduction tends to disappear over time, (iii) if the bookmakers promptly adapt to such structural change or whether mispricing was created on the betting market. The results from a large data set covering all seasons since 2004 for the ten most popular and followed basketball leagues in Europe show, on the one hand, an overall significant reduction of the home advantage of around 5% and no evidence that suggests that this effect has been reduced at as teams became more accustomed to playing without fans; on the other hand, bookmakers appear to have anticipated such effect and priced home win in basketball matches accordingly, thus avoiding creating mispricing on betting markets.

show abstract

Bookmakers’ mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break

Cited by 15 publications

References 41 publications

The Effect of COVID-19 on Home Advantage in Women’s Soccer: Evidence From Swedish Damallsvenskan

The Effect of COVID-19 on Home Advantage in Women’s Soccer: Evidence From Swedish Damallsvenskan

Are Betting Markets Inefficient? Evidence From Simulations and Real Data

Home advantage and mispricing in indoor sports’ ghost games: the case of European basketball

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About