Building forecasting model of automobile industry based on Grey theory: A case study of Nissan motor corporation

Abstract

Forecasting a future development is always an important issue found in various fields, ranging from economics through physics to engineering. In recent years, the grey forecasting model has achieved good prediction accuracy with limited data and has been widely used in various research fields. This study presents a review of theory on Grey system theory to form the basis for forecasting the performance of automobile companies in the next few years. Grey Theory is truly a multidisciplinary and generic theory that deals with systems which characterized with poor information or which information is lacking. This study based on Grey system theory to forecast the Net sales which data are few and the behaviors of systems are unknown. Data used in this study are obtained from the annual report 2014 of the Nissan Motor Corporation for the forecasting of net sales in the4 coming years (i.e., 2014 to 2017). For the current research, in the first phase, the original predicted values of net sales are obtained individually by the GM (1, 1) and DGM (1, 1) model. Secondly, the forecasting results of two models are compared by Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Interestingly, this study found that the accuracy levels of these two models are much the same with the excellent ability. Finally, by referring the expectations and forecasting of sales activities of Nissan Motor Corporation in different market in the world, this study would like to compare and report the analysis of sales and marketing activities through this current study. In the meantime, this study also shows the research implications and managerial applications by doing the task of forecasting sales and net sales.

The Influence of Multidimensional Gray Theory on Higher Education Cooperation Projects under the Mobile Communication System

“…After more than 20 years of development, gray system theory has gradually matured in theory and basically formed a structural system of an emerging discipline. Its basic theoretical structure includes basic concepts such as the definition of gray theory, gray correlation degree, gray prediction model, and gray decision model, which is the deepening and development of systems thinking [29,30].…”

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“…Ortalama göreli hata ise eşitlik 12 ile hesaplanır. , maliyet tahmini (Özer Keçe, Ömürbek, Acar, 2016), kredi kartı kullanımı (Yıldırım, Keskintürk, 2015), bankalardaki bireysel kredi risklerinin tahmini (Aksoy ve Akçakanat, 2019), tekstil moda renk tercih trendi (Lin vd., 2010), sığır eti tüketimi (Zeng, Li, Meng ve Zhang, 2019), bilimsel yayınların tahmini (Aydemir, Bedir ve Özdemir, 2013), basınç verileri (Kaleli, Ceviz ve Erentürk, 2014), deformasyon tahmini (Taşçı, 2017), doğalgaz talep tahmini (Oruç ve Çelik Eroğlu, 2017;Wang, Liu ve Yang, 2018;Lu, 2018), ekonomik büyüme tahmini (Önalan ve Başeğmez, 2018), elektrik üretim ve tüketim tahmini (Zhao ve Zhou, 2018;Şahin, 2018;Es, 2020), sağlık sektörü harcamaları ( Öztürk ve Bilgil, 2019), sağlık sektörüne talep tahminleri (Zor ve Çebi, 2018;Şahin, 2019;Oruç ve Başağaoğlu Fındık, 2020), kripto para fiyatları tahmini (Şahin ve Bağcı, 2020), inşaat endüstrisi tedarik zinciri tahmini (Nguyen ve Tran, 2018;Nguyen, 2020), turist sayıları tahmini (Javed, Ikram, Tao ve Liu, 2020), kalite yönetm sistemlerinin geleceği (Ikram, Zang ve Sroufe, 2020), uçak endüstrisi tahmini (Carmona-Benitez ve Nieto, 2020), otomobil endüstrisi talebi (Tran, 2018) gibi farklı disiplinlere ait konular üzerinde tahminlemeler yapıldığı görülmüştür. Gri Tahmin yöntemlerinden birisi olan GM(1,1) Modeli kullanılarak bankalara ait bazı değişkenlerinin tahminlenmesi bu çalışmanın özgün tarafına vurgu yapmaktadır.…”

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“…Journal Description: 1: (Arsy 2021), 2:(Vahabi et al 2016), 3: (Farahani et al 2016, 4: (Sharma 2012), 5:(Tran 2018), 6 : (Fahrudin et al., 2021, 7: (Subramanian et al 2020), 8: (Wisudawati et al 2021), 9: (Sa-Ngasoongsong et al 2012), 10: (Abu-Eisheh & Mannering, 2002), 11: (Wang et al 2011), 12: (F. Muhammad et al 2012), 13: (Kaya et al 2019), 14: (Lu et al 2017), 15: (Zhu et al 2014), 16: (Fleurke 2017), 17: (Pai & Liu, 2018), 18: (Johan, 2020), 19: (Arslankaya & z 2018).…”