Abstract. To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) net
carbon sink from forests should increase from the current level of about
−360 to −450 Mt CO2eq yr−1 by 2050. Reaching
this target requires additional efforts, which should be informed by the
expected interactions between current age-class distributions, the effect of
forest management practices and the expected impacts of future climate
change. However, modelling the combined effect of these drivers is
challenging, since it requires a mechanistic assessment of climate impacts on
primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration and a detailed
representation of the forest age structure and of the management practices
across the entire EU. To achieve this goal, we combined the output provided
by four land–climate models – run under two different Representative
Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) – to parameterize the
input data used in an empirical forest growth model. This hybrid modelling
approach aims to quantify the impact of climate change and forest management
on the long-term (i.e. to 2100) evolution of the EU27 + UK forest carbon
budget. This approach was tested using a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario,
based on the continuation of the management practices applied by EU member
states within the historical period 2000–2015. We emphasize that our study
does not explore a specific policy scenario but describes a methodological
framework. Our results highlight that, under our BAU case, the EU27 + UK forest C sink
would decrease to about −250 Mt CO2eq yr−1 in 2050 and −80 Mt CO2eq yr−1 by 2100. The main driver of the long-term evolution of
the forest C sink is the ongoing ageing process of the European forests,
mostly determined by past and ongoing management. In addition, climate
change may further amplify or mitigate this trend. Due to the large
uncertainty in climate projections, in 2050 the net C sink may range from
−100 to −400 Mt CO2eq yr−1 under RCP2.6 and
from −100 to −300 Mt CO2eq yr−1 under RCP6.0. These results
suggest that while a change in management practices would be needed to
reverse an otherwise declining trend in the sink, climate change adds a
considerable uncertainty, potentially nearly doubling or halving the sink
associated with management.