Cascading Expert Failure

Murphy, Jon

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3778836

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Action bias, along with escalation of commitment and sunk cost fallacy may have played a role in the suboptimal decision-making processes surrounding the COVID-19 crisis ( Schippers and Rus, 2021 ). Combined with the (in hindsight) overestimation made by experts of the expected infection fatality and of the buffering effects of several aggressive measures ( Chin et al, 2021 ; Ioannidis et al, 2022 ; Pezzullo et al, 2023 ) led to a disastrous chain of self-perpetuating decision-making ( Magness and Earle, 2021 ; Murphy, 2021 ). Instead of dialing back, the general political climate and response doubled down on the measures and on defending a narrative in their support, leading to a Death Spiral of low-quality decision making and serious consequences.…”

Section: Downward Spiralmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is society caught up in a Death Spiral? Modeling societal demise and its reversal

Schippers,

Ioannidis,

Luijks

2024

Front. Sociol.

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Just like an army of ants caught in an ant mill, individuals, groups and even whole societies are sometimes caught up in a Death Spiral, a vicious cycle of self-reinforcing dysfunctional behavior characterized by continuous flawed decision making, myopic single-minded focus on one (set of) solution(s), denial, distrust, micromanagement, dogmatic thinking and learned helplessness. We propose the term Death Spiral Effect to describe this difficult-to-break downward spiral of societal decline. Specifically, in the current theory-building review we aim to: (a) more clearly define and describe the Death Spiral Effect; (b) model the downward spiral of societal decline as well as an upward spiral; (c) describe how and why individuals, groups and even society at large might be caught up in a Death Spiral; and (d) offer a positive way forward in terms of evidence-based solutions to escape the Death Spiral Effect. Management theory hints on the occurrence of this phenomenon and offers turn-around leadership as solution. On a societal level strengthening of democracy may be important. Prior research indicates that historically, two key factors trigger this type of societal decline: rising inequalities creating an upper layer of elites and a lower layer of masses; and dwindling (access to) resources. Historical key markers of societal decline are a steep increase in inequalities, government overreach, over-integration (interdependencies in networks) and a rapidly decreasing trust in institutions and resulting collapse of legitimacy. Important issues that we aim to shed light on are the behavioral underpinnings of decline, as well as the question if and how societal decline can be reversed. We explore the extension of these theories from the company/organization level to the society level, and make use of insights from both micro-, meso-, and macro-level theories (e.g., Complex Adaptive Systems and collapsology, the study of the risks of collapse of industrial civilization) to explain this process of societal demise. Our review furthermore draws on theories such as Social Safety Theory, Conservation of Resources Theory, and management theories that describe the decline and fall of groups, companies and societies, as well as offer ways to reverse this trend.

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Section: Downward Spiralmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is society caught up in a Death Spiral? Modeling societal demise and its reversal

Schippers,

Ioannidis,

Luijks

2024

Front. Sociol.

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“…By some standard of judgment, the expert is seen as superior. That standard of judgment may be from a degree-granting institution (such as a university bestowing a degree on an individual), the relative prominence of the individual (Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer, and Welch 1992;Murphy 2022), or how successful they are perceived to be (Smith [1759(Smith [ ] 1984. Regardless of how the judgment is formed, the expert is 'superior' in the comparative sense and thus possesses comparative authority as well.…”

Section: Comparative and Jural Expert Superioritymentioning

confidence: 99%

Ambiguity of Superiority and Authority

Murphy

2023

EJPE

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“…The theory of expert failure is not exhausted by the simple table I give in Koppl (2018, p. 190). For example, Murphy (2021) has expanded the theory by contributing a theory of "cascading expert failure", whereby one expert failure may lead to another in a process similar the regulatory dynamic described by Ikeda (1997) and others. Nevertheless, Table 1 identifies the most important institutional elements of the theory.…”

Section: Theory Of Expert Failurementioning

confidence: 99%

Public health and expert failure

Koppl

2021

Public Choice

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In a modern democracy, a public health system includes mechanisms for the provision of expert scientific advice to elected officials. The decisions of elected officials generally will be degraded by expert failure, that is, the provision of bad advice. The theory of expert failure suggests that competition among experts generally is the best safeguard against expert failure. Monopoly power of experts increases the chance of expert failure. The risk of expert failure also is greater when scientific advice is provided by only one or a few disciplines. A national government can simulate a competitive market for expert advice by structuring the scientific advice it receives to ensure the production of multiple perspectives from multiple disciplines. I apply these general principles to the United Kingdom's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

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Cascading Expert Failure

Cited by 4 publications

References 60 publications

Is society caught up in a Death Spiral? Modeling societal demise and its reversal

Is society caught up in a Death Spiral? Modeling societal demise and its reversal

Ambiguity of Superiority and Authority

Public health and expert failure

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